Financial News

Canada: Housing starts increase 5.8% in January
Annual rate Latest : 186.3K (actual); 180.0K (forecast); Previous 176.1K (revised from 174.5K) FACTS: Canadian housing starts increased by 5.8% in January to 186.3K units from an upwardly revised 176.1K in December. Urban starts increased to 165.2K from 158.3K the previous month. Starts in rural areas also gained ground rising to 21.1K. Single family starts in urban areas rose 3.3% to 88.9K while multiple starts in urban areas advanced by 5.7% to 76.3K. On a regional basis, British Columbia

US: Stock of Consumer Credit Contracted Less than Expected
Consumer credit fell $1.7B in December, wrapping up 2009 with a total plunge of $102.3B, the largest annual drop on record. Revolving credit fell $8.5B, while nonrevolving credit rose $6.8B in December. Moderation in Pace of Consumer Credit Drop Total consumer credit fell at a slower pace in December from November?s record drop, which was revised to -$21.8B. Consumer credit outstanding declined 0.8 percent at an annual rate in December. We look for more moderate declines in coming months as

World: another strong signal coming from LEIs
Leading indicators continue to point to a strong global economic recovery in 2010. According to just-released OECD data, the leading economic indicator (LEI) of OECD countries surged 0.9% in November, a tenth consecutive robust increase. The performance for the LEI of the BRIC economies ? which are not part of the OECD ? was equally strong, with China advancing 1.1% and India 0.6%. As Today?s Hot Chart shows, the six-month change in our global LEI composite (our preferred gauge of future

US: January jobs report was encouraging
Payroll jobs were reported down 20,000 in January. Despite this worst-than-expected outcome, a number of elements in the report were very encouraging. Cyclical industries such as manufacturing (+11K, first rise in three years) and help-supply agencies (+52,000, the 4th consecutive increase) both added jobs during the month. Importantly, the economy-wide wage bill increased 0.5% on the month, the second rise in three months. As today?s Hot Chart shows, the wage bill is now expanding at a 4% clip

US: Update Non-Farm Payrolls
The Non-Farm Payrolls report illustrated that job losses slowed to 20K in January. This is a significant improvement from December?s 150K (revised from 85K) job losses. Although the employment situation is stabilizing due to the improvement in economic activity, it remains weak. In total, approximately 8.4M jobs have been shed since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Furthermore, the unemployment rate dropped to 9.7% from 10.0%. Employment in the private services rose by 48K jobs.

US: Disappointing headline masks good news
Non-farm employment declined by 20K in January, while unemployment unexpectedly declined to 9.7% from 10.0%. The benchmark and post-benchmark estimated revision showed that the economy up to December 2009 has lost about 1.363m more jobs than earlier estimated. The forward looking details of the report were encouraging, indicating a possible rapid turn-around in payrolls may be imminent. Details The report includes the 2009 benchmark revisions. The level of employment in March 2009 was revised

Canada: The job machine is alive
Latest (monthly change): +43.0k (Actual); +15.0k (expected) Previous: -28.3k FACTS: Total employment rose 43.0K in January, following a lacklustre month in December (-28.3K). Gains were concentrated in part-time employment (+41.5K) while fulltime jobs edged up +1.4K. Both private (+53.7K) and public sector (+13.4K) employment rose in January while selfemployed decreased -24.0K. The service producing sector added 66.1K jobs with business, building and other support services (+34.4K) and trade

US: Employment - Smaller Declines, Slow Recovery in Tow
Payrolls fell by 20,000 but there were good gains in many sectors, construction the exception. The trend in employment is consistent with sustained recovery and consumer income gains, though at a subdued rate. Employment Gains Widespread, Hours Worked Up Private sector employment gains continued their gradual improvement over the last four months. In January, there were job gains in manufacturing, retail and temporary help as well as the long-term gains in education & health. Gains in

PREVIEW: Non-Farm Payrolls
US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls M/M (Jan) Exp. +15K (Prev. -85K) Nov. +4.00K Morgan Stanley +75K                 Barclays Capital +25K JP Morgan +20K                          UBS -20K Goldman Sachs -25K                    Deutsche Bank +75K Bank of America

Hungary: December Industrial Output
Industry declined 1.4% y/y in December The December industrial output figures published this morning surprised on the downside. According to CSO?s preliminary statistics, the adjusted y/y figure still showed a decline (-1.4%), remaining well below our expectation of +4.8% y/y. The unadjusted y/y figure was slightly positive (+1%), practically due to the base effect. The great disappointment however was the monthly figure, showing that the performance of industry decreased by 5.7%, compared to

US: Factory Orders Finish 2009 in Better Shape
Orders at U.S. manufacturers increased 1.0 percent in December?a larger-than-expected gain and the eighth increase in nine months. Non-defense capital goods orders, ex-aircraft, climbed 2.2 percent. 2009: A Year of Gradual Recovery for Manufacturing After falling off a cliff in the second half of 2008, factory orders increased 3.6 percent in 2009. Orders are still well below their peak hit in July of 2007, but the recovery in manufacturing appears to remain on track. Non-defense capital goods

US: Nonfarm Productivity Rose In-Line with Expectations
Nonfarm productivity rose at a 6.2 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter as output rose 7.2 percent and hours worked rose 1.0 percent. Unit labor costs fell 4.4 percent, which will help keep inflation contained. Businesses Continue Cost-Cutting Measures Nonfarm productivity growth rose at a 6.2 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter. The third quarter was downwardly revised. The increase, however, continues to suggest that businesses are finding ways to squeeze more output out of fewer

Preview: January NFP likely turned positive
January unemployment and nonfarm payrolls will be released on Friday February 5th at 8:30 am (EST). December nonfarm payrolls (nfp) declined by 85k and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 10%. The trade had expected the December nonfarm payrolls to come in at around -35k with a number of analysts looking for a possible positive reading for the December nfp report. The November nonfarm payrolls was revised to plus 4k. This marks the first monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls since the US

US: Update ISM Non-Manufacturing
The ISM non-manufacturing index rose from 49.8 to 50.5 in January. This is the highest level since May 2005 and indicates that activity in the sector is beginning to increase, but is not yet robust. A level above the benchmark of fifty is consistent with expansion in the non-manufacturing sector. The new orders index rose for the fifth consecutive month to 54.7, which is an indication that new orders are coming in at a faster pace and that overall activity in the sector could pick-up further in

US: Update ADP Employment Report
According to the ADP National Employment Report, total non-farm private employment dropped 22K jobs in January. While employment declined for the twenty-fourth consecutive month, it did so at the slowest pace since the recession began in December 2007, which is a positive indication that the labor market is stabilizing further. The report?s details illustrated that employment is beginning to pick-up in the services sector. This sector added 38K jobs in January, the second consecutive increase

US: ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Portends Languid Recovery
A reading of 50.5, just above the breakeven, shows that the service sector expanded slightly in January. The index has hovered near the breakeven for about five months, and has not seen sustained gains since summer. Hesitant Recovery Remains the Outlook for Services The composite index of the service sector signaled expansion following two months of slight contraction, a slow move in the right direction. Orders posted solid growth, but export orders continued to contract. The backlog of orders

February 2010

US: First easing of credit standards in the current recovery
Yesterday?s Senior Loan Officer Survey on bank lending practices showed the first easing in credit standards since the onset of recession for C&I loans of large and medium size. Indeed, 5.5% of domestic banks eased credit conditions on net, a sharp contrast to the 83.6% net tightening at the peak of the cycle. The report also alleviates some concerns about credit conditions for small businesses, largely viewed as the weakest link in this recovery. With only 3.7% of banks tightening credit

Spain: Foreign trade January-November 2009

US Senior Loan Officer Survey: Tightening has ceased
Fed's January Senior Loan Officer survey released last night showed that credit standards in general were tightened to a much lesser extent over the past three months and even eased for some categories The demand side was generally weak both for households and businesses. The net fraction of banks that reported weaker demand for business loans continued to decline while comparable readings on demand for loans to households were mixed. In general the survey confirms what we have seen in other

US: Upside surprise for payroll jobs?
As we look ahead to this Friday?s all-important payroll jobs report, the latest data are encouraging. The employment component of the just-released ISM report on manufacturing rose to its highest level in four years in January. Also, we note that the Conference Board?s Help-Wanted Online data series surged by 382,000 in January. This was the largest increase since the inception of the measure in 2005 and brings the cumulative increase in online vacancies to 750,000 in the last three months. As

US: Construction Spending Fell Well Below Expectations
Total construction spending fell 1.2 percent in December, with significant downward revisions to November. The gain in October, however, was revised up to 1.5 percent. Private residential fell 2.8 percent on the month. The Devil is in the Details: Private Single Family Rose Residential outlays fell 2.8 percent, but private single family spending posted its seventh consecutive monthly gain. Increases in single family are likely due to the first-time homebuyers? tax credit. The upward revision to

US: ISM reaching the high ground
The ISM index once again surprised by its strength, in reaching the strongest level seen since August 2004. With new orders rising a further notch and positive forward looking signals we believe there is room for further, but moderate, improvements in the index. Although some indicators paint a more positive outlook, we maintain our target for the ISM at 60 within the next three months. Details The details of the index were just as encouraging as the headline. The new orders index rose a notch

US: ISM shows that Manufacturing Recovery Continues, with Price Pressures
The ISM index came in at 58.4 in January with above break-even readings for orders, production and now employment. Price pressures continue with input prices up for metals and energy inputs. ISM: Manufacturing Growth, Solid Orders Growth is the story. The overall PMI came in at 58.4 and the production index at 66.2, indicating that the output side of the manufacturing sector continues to expand. Looking forward, the orders index came in at 65.9 and the export orders index at 58.5. These data

US: Personal Income and Spending Rose in December
Personal income and spending rose 0.4 and 0.2 percent respectively to end 2009. Despite the increase in spending, consumers found a way to save a little more, while inflation remained relatively tame. Income & Spending Again Moved Higher Income managed its sixth consecutive increase despite the labor market?s continued weakness. Gains were broad based with employment and non-employment based income rising. Real consumption rose for the third straight month (albeit at a slower pace) in

US: GDP rises 5.7% in the second straight quarter of growth
Inventories were the main driver; PCE growth slowed compared to 3Q09 Positive contributions were widespread across components The employment outlook, household deleveraging and low income growth could limit the pace of PCE expansion in 2010 Economic expansion took hold for the second straight quarter as GDP increased 5.7%. While fourth quarter growth was expected to outpace that of the previous quarter, it was stronger than our forecast of 4.2%. The main surprises were positive contributions

January 2010
Highlights Government introduces measures to support economy S&P confirmed Croatia?s sovereign rating Financial markets: MM rates perform with no change Monetary activity showing some improvement 3Q C/A surplus down 7% y/y December CPI records only a small change Government introducing new measures to support economy At its last session, the government finalized a proposal of measures aimed at supporting the economy. There would be two modalities of support. In the first, the Croatian Bank

US: Business sector GDP surges in Q4
Real GDP shattered expectations in Q4 by surging 5.7%, the biggest increase since 2003 Q3. Most of the rise came from inventory accumulation which accounted for 60% of the growth (or 3.4 percentage points). Final domestic demand was up only 1.7%, a little softer than the 2.3% growth registered in Q3. Given this development, it is important not to get carried away by the headline GDP number. Inventories will only be absorbed if final domestic demand picks up in the coming months. Fortunately,

US: ISM preview, January
January?s manufacturing ISM index rebounded with an increase to 55.9 from December?s reading of 53.6. All major subcomponents increased, especially the important New Orders index rose to a new cyclical high, hence improving the orders-inventories balance which points to further increases in the overall index. The price component indicated that there are moderate headline inflationary pressures in the pipeline. The local surveys have again been positive and are signalling an increase in the

US: Employment Costs Remain Tame Despite Increase
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter. The gain was driven by an increase in private wages and salaries which rose 0.5 percent, and government compensation up 0.5 percent. Employment Costs Remain Contained The Employment Cost Index rose 0.5 percent, which was slightly higher than expectations. Private compensation increased only o.4 percent with service occupations likely pulling down the total. Private wages and salaries rose 0.5 percent with management and

US: Another Gain in the Chicago Business Barometer in January
After last month?s gain, the Chicago Business Barometer increased 2.8 points to 61.5. Previously published data were revised down for many indices. Employment increased for the first time in two years. Recovery Continues with Gain in the Barometer This is the fourth month that the barometer has signaled expansion, and gains in many sub-indices support the notion that recovery is underway. The production index increased 2.4 points to 66.6 and the new orders index was up at 66.4. Businesses need

US: Solid end to 2009 - slower growth ahead
The last quarter of 2009 saw solid growth largely driven by slower inventory depletion. Growth in final sales continued to improve as well. This should soon start to spill over to the labour market; we look for positive job growth in Q1. We expect growth to slow but stay above trend in the coming quarters as inventories stabilise and domestic demand continues to recover. Details US GDP showed solid growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, well above our and consensus forecasts. Looking at the

US: Big Print for GDP, Behind the Curtain a Slow Go
Real economic growth, measured by GDP, grew 5.7 percent, but the real story is the continued improvement in real final sales, up 2.2 percent, led by gains in consumer spending and business investment in equipment. Headline Says Boom: Inside Baseball Says Moderation Headline GDP came in at 5.7 percent but inside baseball?real final sales?(top graph) were up only 2.2 percent. The difference was inventories. Bottom line: the economy is recovering but the pace remains subpar. Consumer spending

Canada: GDP increased 0.4% in November
Latest: +0.4% (actual) +0.3% (expected) Previous: 0.3% (revised up from 0.2%) FACTS: Real GDP registered a 0.4% increase in November after advancing 0.3% (revised up from 0.2%) one-month earlier. The goods producing sector advanced 0.6%, marking a third consecutive monthly rise. The mining & oil & gas extraction (+1.8%) and construction (+1.1%) were the top performing goods-producing industry, while utilities (-1.8%) lagged as a result of unusually warm weather conditions. Growth in the

US: Economy Grows at 5.7% Annualized Rate in 4th Quarter
The US economy ended 2009 on a strong clip, with the economy expanding at a seasonally adjusted 5.7% annual rate between October and December, according to the first estimate from the Department of Commerce. That followed a 2.2% annual rise in the 3rd quarter. The quarterly growth was the best since late 2003. For the year though the economy shrank 2.4%, the worst year for GDP since 1946 when the US was transitioning from a war footing to a peacetime economy.   A big part of the gain in

Do not get too exited about the US GDP figures
Five point seven percent. The US economy didn?t grow that fast since the third quarter of 2003. Does that mean the crisis is definitely over and we just started a period of robust growth associated with many rates increases by the Fed? Not exactly. While the headline number for the 4th quarter GDP growth is indeed impressive it is always worth to take a look under the carpet. It was expected that the GDP will be fueled by inventory rebuilding. But the 3,8% contribution is a massive thing. It

US: Business investment is coming back
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve acknowledged that the private sector was beginning to contribute to economic growth through increased business investment in machinery & equipment. The justreleased data on U.S. durables confirms this. Shipments of nondefence capital goods rose 2.2% in December, the fourth consecutive rise and is the largest monthly increase since March 2008. This is important since this component is very highly correlated with business investment. As today?s Hot Chart shows,

US: Update Durable goods orders
Durable goods orders rose 0.3% in December after dropping 0.4% in November. While orders remain at low levels, 3.1% below those of last year, the upward trend in the year-over-year change over the past nine months indicates that they are on the path to recovery. Total durable goods orders were dragged down by transportations, which dropped 2.0%. While orders of motor vehicles and defense aircraft rose 3.6% and 14.7% respectively, that of non-defense aircraft dropped 38.2%. Excluding

US: Durable Goods Disappoint in December
Orders for durables goods at U.S. factories gained incrementally in December, but not nearly as much as market-watchers had hoped. Much of the weakness had to do with a decline in nondefense aircraft orders. Report Looks Better Outside of Aircraft Orders The 0.3 percent gain in December durable goods orders was not nearly enough to offset two straight months of declines, but much of the weakness can be attributed to a 38.2 percent drop in nondefense aircraft orders. Stripping out the volatile

Lithuania: GDP stabilisation - recovery next?
Today Lithuanian Statistics published the flash estimate of GDP growth in Q409. GDP declined 13.0% y/y, up from -14.3% y/y in Q309. The outcome was marginally better than consensus forecast (-14.2% y/y), but worse than our estimate of a drop by 11.7% y/y. Details Lithuanian GDP declined 13.0 y/y in Q409, up from -14.3% y/y in Q309; the outcome for the whole year is -15.0% y/y. The growth was positive for the second quarter in a row, but seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP increased only

Retail sales (Jan): Up after drop in December
Trade deficit (Dec): slightly wider, but only in nominal terms Retail sales (Jan): up after drop in December UMI consumer sentiment (Feb): down somewhat after soaring in January According to the first GDP estimate for Q4, inventories contributed 3.4 percentage points to the 5.7% increase in GDP in annualised terms. The Department of Commerce nevertheless assumed that wholesale, retail and factory inventories will have decreased in December. Thus wholesale inventories, which had risen by more

Americas Calendar: Week of February 8 - 12, 2010
Monday, February 08, 2010 Economic 06:00 Chile Jan CPI 06:30 Chile Jan Trade Balance 08:30 Canada Jan Housing Starts Events Bankof America India Investor Conference. Deutsche Bank Small and Mid CapConference. Thomas Weisel Technology & Telecom Conference. UBSGlobal Healthcare Services Conference. Biotechnology Industry CEO andInvestor Conference. Ex-dividend: AEP $0.41, CTAS $0.48, IBM, $0.55,XLNX $0.16, XOM $0.42. Earnings Before the Open: AMRI, AGNC, BWP, CGA, CHDX, CNA, CVS , GWR, HAS ,

EMU GDP (Q4): Up
German GDP (Q4) : unchanged  EMU GDP (Q4): up  EMU industrial production (December): up On 12 February, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is publishing its ?flash release? on German Q4 GDP; a detailed breakdown of the components will follow on 24 February. As already suggested by Destatis, German GDP growth will probably have remained unchanged quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2009. Italian GDP could have stagnated in Q4 too, as industrial production decreased in that period.

ISM indices (Jan): higher again
Personal spending (Dec): up despite drop in retail sales ISM indices (Jan): higher again Labour market report (Jan): modest increase in nonfarm payrolls Personal income increased by 0.4% mom in November, but was still 0.3% points lower than the previous year. However, due to various fiscal measures, disposable income was 3% higher than in November 2008. According to the GDP data for Q4, personal income could have gone up again by 0.4% mom in December. The data suggest that personal spending,

February 2010

February 2010 Economic Calendar

Americas Calendar: Week of February 1 - 5, 2010
Monday, February 01, 2010 Economic 07:00 Brazil Jan PMI Manufacturing 08:30 Dec Personal Income (last 0.4%), Dec Personal Spending (last 0.5%), Dec PCE Deflator y/y (last 1.5%), Dec PCE Core (last m/m 0.0%, y/y 1.4%) 10:00 Dec ISM Manufacturing (last 55.9), Dec ISM Prices Paid (last 61.5), Dec Construction Spending m/m (last -0.6%) 15:00 Treasury quarterly funding estimates Events 10:00 Treasury Sec Geithner to testify before Senate Finance Committee. 12:00 Treasury's Barr to speak at

Output in the German producing sector (December): Weak
German retail sales (December): up German industrial new orders (December): weak Output in the German producing sector (December): weak After having soared in November, German industrial new orders and output in the German producing sector are expected to have suffered a setback in December . However, they are unlikely to have decreased, as most of the correlated indicators improved. In December, German retail sales are likely to have recovered from their drop the previous month. However,

GDP (Q4): Inventories driving growth
Consumer confidence indicators (Jan): stable at best  FOMC rate decision: slight changes in the wording of the statement  Durable goods orders (Dec): rebound in aircraft orders  GDP (Q4): inventories driving growth Given that pending home sales plummeted by 16% mom in November, we expect existing home sales, which tend to lag by one or two months, to have dropped significantly in December, from 6.54m to 5.80m. New home sales already plunged in November from 400k to 355k ? their

Americas Calendar: Week of January 25 - 29, 2010
Monday, January 25, 2010 Economic 10:00 Dec Existing Home Sales (last 6.54M, m/m 7.4%) 10:30 Jan Dallas Fed Manufacturing (last 3.8%) Events BoJ Rate Decision . Ex-dividend: PGR $0.161, CALM $0.172. Earnings Before the Open: AKS , BOH, CNH, ETN, HAL , ERIC, PVTB, DGX , SEE. After the Close: ALB, ALGT, AMGN , AAPL , ATHR, CLDN, CR, GGG, HTLF, JEC, JDAS, KRC, MSPD, NARA, OLN, PKG, PRXL, PLXT, RLRN, RLI, SLG, TXN , VMW , VLTR, ZION. Tuesday, January 26, 2010 Economic 05:00 Brazil Jan Consumer

EMU inflation flash estimate (January): Inflation up
German ifo business climate (January): unchanged EMU economic sentiment and industrial confidence (January): unchanged German CPI inflation (January): increasing, but still low EMU inflation flash estimate (January): inflation up German adjusted unemployment (January): cold weather could have had a negative impact M3 growth (December): slightly negative The ifo business climate for Germany will probably have remained unchanged in January . The US ISM manufacturing index has risen, but the

Leading indicators (Dec): Ninth increase in a row
Housing starts (Dec): only up slightly Philadelphia Fed index (Jan): down somewhat after two consecutive improvements Leading indicators (Dec): ninth increase in a row The NAHB index, which had risen from its low of 6 in January 2009 to 18 by September, declined again slightly to 16 in December. This was due to falling expectations for sales of single-family homes. We predict that the NAHB index will have remained unchanged in January. The disappointing performance of the NAHB index suggests

Americas Calendar: Week of January 18 - 22, 2010
Monday, January 18, 2010 Economic None Seen Events Bond and equity markets closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday. Earnings None Seen Tuesday, January 19, 2010 Economic 09:00 BoC Rate Decision , Nov Net Long-Term TIC Flows (last $20.7B), Nov Total Net TIC Flows (last -$13.9B) 13:00 Jan NAHB Housing Market Index (last 16) Events PGNEarnings Guidance. ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales (7:45, last -3%).Redbook Retail Sales (8:55, last +1.4%). ABC Consumer Confidence (last-47). Trades

PMI manufacturing index EMU (January): Up
German ZEW economic sentiment (January): up PMI manufacturing index EMU (January): up The German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have improved in January , just like the ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index. German yield spreads widened initially, but have now narrowed again slightly, just like long-term interest rates, whereas short-term rates have decreased. After having depreciated initially, the euro has now appreciated somewhat. The DAX has continued going up.

January 2010

Retail sales (Dec): Another increase led by car sales
Trade deficit (Nov): widening due to higher import prices Retail sales (Dec): another increase led by car sales Consumer prices (Dec): moderate rise due to lower gasoline prices NY Empire manufacturing index (Jan): rebound after December plunge Industrial production (Dec): utilities and the inventory cycle have a positive impact UMI consumer sentiment (Jan): stable after marked improvement in December The trade deficit narrowed significantly in October, from $35.7bn to $32.9bn. This was due

ECB council: No change
German GDP 2009 growth: at record low EMU industrial production (November) : more or less unchanged ECB council: no change German GDP growth in 2009 might turn out to have been somewhat less negative than our forecast, as the data of the first three quarters of the year could be revised. However, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is not publishing any quarterly data on 13 January. A ?flash release? on German Q4 GDP will be published on 12 February; a detailed breakdown of the

Americas Calendar: Week of January 11 - 15,2010
Monday, January 11, 2010 Economic 10:00 Mexico final Nov Trade Balance (last 92.9M) 10:30 Q4 Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey (last 6.7) 13:00 Treasury's 10-yr TIPS auction Events 12:45 Fed's Lockhart to speak on the US economic outlook. Cowen Consumer Conference, JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, JefferiesGlobal Healthcare Conference, Sidoti Microcap Conference. TFX 2010outlook. LUNA corporate update. Earnings Before the Open: MDRX , HELE. After the Close: AA , WDFC. Tuesday, January

Labour market report (Dec): deterioration abating
ISM indices (Dec): showing little growth Labour market report (Dec): deterioration abating The ISM manufacturing index declined from 55.7 to 53.6 in November, and we expect it to have fallen further to about 53.0 in December. The first regional manufacturing indices for December showed mixed results: the Chicago PMI jumped to 60.0 and the Philadelphia Fed index rose again, albeit remaining on a relatively low level. However, the New York Empire plummeted from 23.5 to a mere 2.6, and the

Americas Calendar: Week of January 4 - 8,2010
Monday, January 04, 2010 Economic 8:00am Brazil Dec Trade Balance (last $615M) 10:00am Dec ISM Manufacturing (last 53.6), Prices Paid (last 55); Nov Construction Spending (last 0.0%) Events 10:15amET Fed's Lockhart at a financial crisis panel in Atlanta, 1:15pmET Fed's Duke speaks on the economy , Trades Ex-dividend: GPS $0.085, CLI $0.45 Earnings None Seen Tuesday, January 05, 2010 Economic 10:00am Nov Factory Orders (last 0.6%); Nov Pending Home sales (last 3.7% m/m, 28.6% y/y) 4:30pm API

German industrial new orders (November): rebound
EMU inflation flash estimate (December): higher inflation EMU economic sentiment and industrial confidence (December): up German adjusted unemployment (December): cold weather could have had a negative impact German industrial new orders (November): rebound Output in the German producing sector (November): rebound German retail sales (November): slightly up The Eurostat flash estimate is likely to show that euro area inflation increased but is still quite weak. We expect an inflation rate of

Chicago PMI (Dec): Marked downward correction
Consumer confidence (Dec): rebound sparked by improvement in the labour market Chicago PMI (Dec): marked downward correction The Conference Board?s consumer confidence had reached 54.5 in August, but by November, it had fallen back five points. However, given that the University of Michigan?s consumer sentiment rose by six points to 73.4 in the preliminary December survey, we predict that consumer confidence will also have gone up markedly. The Conference Board?s indicator reacts quite

Week of December 28, 2009 - January 1, 2010
Monday, December 28, 2009 Economic 10:30am Dec Dallas Fed Manufacturing (last 0.3%) 1:00pm Treasury's 2 year note auction Events Ex-dividend: KFT $0.29, CPB $0.275. Earnings Before the Open: CALM, NWPX After the Close: BLSW Tuesday, December 29, 2009 Economic 9:00am Oct S&P/CS Home Price Index (last 146.51), Oct S&P/CS Composite-20 (last -9.36%) 10:00am Dec Consumer Confidence (last 49.5) 1:00pm Treasury's 5 year note auction 4:30pm API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories Events

January 2010 Economic Calendar

Bank Holidays
Australia Fri, Jan 1 2010 New Year's Day Tue, Jan 26 2010 Australia Day Fri, Apr 2 2010 Good Friday Mon, Apr 5 2010 Easter Monday Mon, Apr 26 2010 ANZAC Day Mon, Jun 14 2010 Queen's Birthday Mon, Aug 2 2010 August Bank Holiday Mon, Oct 4 2010 Labour Day Sat, Dec 25 2010 Christmas Day Sun, Dec 26 2010 Boxing Day Mon, Dec 27 2010 Boxing Day Observed Canada Fri, Jan 1 2010 New Year's Day Fri, Apr 2 2010 Good Friday Mon, Apr 5 2010 Eastern Monday Mon, May 24 2010 Victoria Day Thu, Jul 1 2010

Home sales (Nov): Up again, albeit more moderately
PCE core deflator (Nov): Annual rate set to remain unchanged Durable goods orders (Nov): Rising after decline in October The second estimate of GDP for Q3 showed a downward revision of the growth rate from 3.5% qoq annualised to 2.7% qoq. This was mainly due to an upward correction in imports; consumer spending was less robust and commercial construction declined even more than previously estimated. We expect the third estimate to confirm the growth rate at around 2.8% qoq. Existing home sales

Week of December 21 - 25, 2009
Monday, December 21, 2009 Economic 08:30 Nov Chicago Fed Index (last -1.08) 15:30 Mexico Oct Retail Sales Events Ex-dividend: SPLS $0.083, FLS $0.27, CINF $0.395. Earnings Before the Open: CAG , WAG . After the Close: JBL. Tuesday, December 22, 2009 Economic 08:30 Final Q3 GDP q/q (prelim 2.8%), Q3 GDP Price Index (prelim 0.5%), Q3Personal Consumption (prelim 2.9%), Q3 Core PCE q/q (prelim 1.3%) 10:00 Dec Richmond Fed Manufacturing (last 1), Nov Existing Home Sales (last 6.1M, m/m 10.1%), Oct

M3 growth (November): Broadly flat
German CPI inflation (December): increasing, but still low  M3 growth (November): broadly flat The German GfK consumer confidence for January could have rebounded, after having deteriorated unexpectedly the previous month. Belgian and Italian business confidence will probably have continued improving in December , albeit at a slower pace than in November. The same applies to Italian consumer confidence. French consumer spending could have gone up again in November , just like French

Housing starts (Nov): Rebounding after massive drop
CPI & PPI (Nov): annual rates back in positive territory First regional manufacturing indices (Dec): more or less stable Industrial production (Nov): increase in manufacturing Housing starts (Nov): rebounding after massive drop FOMC: continuing to signal exceptionally low fed funds rates for an extended period Leading indicators (Nov): up markedly Due to higher food and energy prices, producer prices increased by 0.3% mom in October, but core PPI plunged by 0.6% mom, mainly because of

Week of December 14 - 18,2009
Monday, December 14, 2009 Economic 10:00 TAF auction 15:30 Mexico Oct Industrial Production Events IMGN Analyst Call. Ex-dividend: HPQ $0.08, BDK $0.12. Earnings Before the Open: NTSC, CSPI. After the Close: SNS, PAY. Tuesday, December 15, 2009 Economic 06:00 Brazil Oct Retail Sales 08:30 Nov PPI (last m/m 0.3%, y/y -1.9%, ex food & energy last m/m -0.6%,y/y 0.7%), Dec Empire Manufacturing (last 23.51), Canada Oct LeadingIndicators, Canada Q3 Capacity Utilization 09:00 Oct Net Long-Term

PMI manufacturing index EMU (December): Up
German ifo business climate (December): up  German ZEW economic sentiment (December): unchanged  PMI manufacturing index EMU (December): up  EMU industrial production (October): slightly down EMU industrial production could have decreased in October , as the corresponding national figures sent mixed signals. Following their usual seasonal pattern, the EMU trade balance and current account are expected to have improved in October , just like the corresponding German figures.

Trade deficit (Oct): Narrowing slightly after sharp deterioration
Retail sales (Nov): increasing further partly due to higher car sales UMI consumer sentiment (Dec): still at depressed levels despite further improvement The downward trend in consumer credit has not slowed down significantly yet: after a fall of $41.6bn in Q2, consumer credit dropped by $37.9bn in the 3rd quarter. We forecast that consumer credit will have gone down sharply again by about $11.0bn in October. The liquidation of inventories is slowing markedly, and thus inventories could have

Week of December 7 - 11,2009
Monday, December 07, 2009 Economic 15:00 Oct Consumer Credit (last -$14.8B) Events 12:00Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks to Economic Club of Washington. 17:45Fed's Dudley speaks at Columbia University. Copenhagen ClimateConference. 8:00 FDA Cardiovascular and Renal Drugs AdvisoryCommittee Meeting. UBS Media & Communications Conference. METInvestor Day. AKAM Analyst Day. SLG Analyst Meeting. Ex-dividend: PEG$0.333, FTR $0.25, APC $0.09, AEE $0.385, LPS $010, AMX $0.765. Earnings Before the

German industrial new orders (October): Up
Output in the German producing sector (October): more or less unchanged German industrial new orders will probably have picked up again in October , as most of the correlated indicators improved. However, output in the German producing sector might have suffered a setback in October, after having soared unexpectedly the previous month. Following their usual seasonal pattern, the German trade balance and current account could have improved in October . French and Italian industrial production,

December 2009

December 2009 Economic Calendar

ISM indices (Nov): Mixed picture
Labour market report (Nov): another decline in payrolls despite end of recession Factory orders (Oct): up again solely due to non-durable goods orders The ISM manufacturing index jumped from 52.6 to 55.7 in October, mainly due to the employment component having crossed the expansion threshold ? despite the labour market report later revealing a sharp decline in manufacturing jobs. The indicators do not bode well for November?s ISM manufacturing index: the New York Empire fell by 11 points, and

Week of 11/30/2009 thru 12/4/2009
Monday, November 30, 2009 Economic 9:45 Nov Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (last 54.2) 10:00 Nov NAPM-Milwaukee (last 50), TAF auction 10:30 Nov Dallas Fed Manufacturing (last -3.3%) Events LSTR Mid Quarter Update. Ex-dividend: SLB $0.21, CTL $0.70, AVY $0.20, NOV $1.10, GS $0.35, WM $0.29. Earnings Before the Open: NRGY. After the Close: GES, OVTI. Tuesday, December 01, 2009 Economic 10:00 Nov ISM Manufacturing (last 55.7), Nov ISM Prices Paid (last 65), OctConstruction Spending m/m (last

German retail sales (October): Down
German adjusted unemployment (November): short-time work still dampening upward trend EMU inflation flash estimate (November): back in positive territory ECB council: rates unchanged, gradual exit from non-standard measures German retail sales are likely to have decreased in October . German consumer confidence improved, but retailers? business assessment plummeted. The Purchasing Managers? Indices for the German and EMU manufacturing sector in November are unlikely to be revised

Durable goods orders (Oct): Up again
Existing and new home sales (Oct): up due to higher affordability and tax credit rules GDP (Q3 2nd estimate): downward revision Consumer confidence indicators (Nov): slight improvement after sharp drop Durable goods orders (Oct): up again PCE core deflator (Oct): close to the lower end of the Fed?s comfort zone Existing home sales jumped by 9.4% mom in September, and they could have continued to increase in October: as the graph illustrates, pending home sales tend to lead by one to two