Financial News

Canada: Trade balance remains in surplus in January
Trade balance remains in surplus in January Latest: +$0.8B (Actual) +$0.4B (Expected) Previous: +$0.1B (revised up from -$0.2B) FACTS: The Canadian trade balance registered a $0.8B surplus in January, after two $0.01 surpluses in December and November (small deficits initially reported - top chart). In January, exports grew $0.153B or 0.5%. Advances in exports of industrial goods and materials (+$0.3B), consumer goods (+$0.1B) and agricultural and fishing products (+$0.1) were partly offset by

Hungary: CPI slowed to 5.7% y/y in February
Consumer prices rose 0.3% m/m in February, while the 12-month CPI rate slowed to 5.7% from the 6.4% published for January. Our expectation for the y/y rate was 6%, while the market consensus was 6.1%-6.2%. Volatile food prices - which caused negative surprise in January, increasing by 2.2% on the monthly level - rose just 0.3% m/m in February. Household energy prices increased by a moderate 0.3% m/m, within which purchased heating prices decreased by 3.4% m/m - due to the lower VAT rate -

Canada's jobs growth likely slowed in February
The CAD is trading at a two month high versus the USD and has made substantial gains versus European currencies. The outperformance of the CAD is attributed to recent Canadian economic data that points to a stronger than expected Canadian recovery. Canada?s Q4 GDP rose at its fastest space nine years reported at 5%. Canada also reported stronger than expected housing data, improvement in the manufacturing sector and rising employment. CAD is also supported by BOC policy outlook and rising

March 2010 - Cold shower for British pound
The markets are surprised at the sluggishness of the recovery in the United Kingdom. In 2009Q4, the UK?s economic performance paled miserably compared with the 5% and 5.9% growth posted by Canada and the United States, respectively. Other factors also seem to be at the root of the British pound?s tumble. Political uncertainty is making markets fear the worst about the government?s capacity to resolve the impasse of an alarming budget situation. However, the pound?s recent downslide must be put

China: When will exports revert to pre-crisis levels?
The resource sectors of the S&P/TSX retreated on Tuesday after the release of Chinese trade data which showed the second consecutive monthly decline in exports. According to a NY times article, the Chinese commerce minister, Chen Deming, cautioned that it will be two to three years before China's exports return to pre-crisis levels. This is a rather odd comment that is probably aimed at diffusing calls for Yuan appreciation. While it is true that Chinese exports fell on a sequential basis

US: Another Inventory Contraction for Wholesale Sector, Sales up
Inventory at U.S. wholesalers declined 0.2 percent in January, a much slower pace than the -1.0 percent seen in December of last year. Sales were up broadly, causing some improvement to the inventory-sales ratio. Sales Gains have been Consistent, Inventories Less So Wholesalers reduced inventory in Jan. for the second straight month. While the brief build in Oct. and Nov. has not been sustained, the drawdown is convincingly losing steam. While inventories have fluctuated somewhat, gains in

Hungary: GDP declined 4% y/y
In line with the flash estimate, the Hungarian GDP declined 4% y/y in 4Q09. Taking the calendar effect into consideration, the economy dropped by 4.1% y/y in October-December last year. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP declined by 0.4%. As for the breakdown of the figures (based on final use), households? final consumption was down 5.7% y/y (after - 8.8% y/y in 3Q). The fall of investments was 8.1% y/y. The contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth remained negative also in 4Q (-7.8

Preview of US jobless claims and retail sales
Jobless claims The Fed's Evans ties US monetary policy outlook to the labor market. According to Evans, the Fed will need to keep monetary policy accommodative for quite some time because of the weak US labor market. Evan?s specifically cited the length of unemployment as indicative of a weak labor market. He also appeared to leave the door open for possible future asset purchases by the Fed as a way of trying to boost growth and combat the magnitude of US unemployment. Thursday March 11th

Mexico: Too Strategic To Fail With Strong Long Term Fundamentals
HIGHLIGHTS In 2009, Mexico's GDP dropped by 7%, which was among the worst performances in the world and underscored its dependence on the U.S. consumer. The country was also afflicted by high levels of drug and other criminal violence, declining oil production, an ineffective and often corrupt regulatory system and a serious fiscal situation. While growth is expected to be modest in the next couple of years, the country's long-term economic, social and political fundamentals are strong enough

U.S. : small businesses, closer to a turning point?
U.S. Watch The rising tide in GDP is not lifting all boats equally. The small business optimism index (NFIB) decreased 1.3 points in February to a level of 88.0. The biggest decline in the sub-components related to expectations about an improving economy. On the other hand, the biggest change in the positive direction was seen in earnings trends. Despite the decline in the headline number, we do not think there is a need to hit the panic button. As today?s hot chart shows, there is some room

Jobs growth may return in March
The direction of the USD may be nearing an inflection point with focus shifting away from concern about sovereign debt risk in the EU to improving risk sentiment. The USD rallied over 10% versus the EUR since December mainly in reaction to concern about the outlook for sovereign debt risk in the EU. This weekend French president Zarkozy said that the EU is prepared to help Greece. Zakozy?s comments helped ease concern about a Greek debt default and contributed to an improvement in risk

Hungary: January Industrial Output
Industry rose 5.7% y/y in January The January industrial output figures published this morning surprised on the upside. According to CSO?s preliminary statistics, the adjusted y/y figure showed an increase of 5.7%, significantly exceeding our expectation of a 1.6% yearly decline. The unadjusted y/y figure also was positive (3.4%). The reason for the better yearly figures was that on monthly level, the performance of industry jumped by a spectacular 8.8%. Please note however that for December,

Look Ahead: US Fundamental Docket for March 8th-12th
This will brings further information on US consumer spending and attitudes, as well as the state of inventories ? a sector has been at the forefront of the economic recovery. This week we will see both wholesale and business inventories. On the wholesale level, data on Wedensday, is expected to show that inventories increase 0.2% in January after falling 0.8% in December. Total business inventories, due out on Friday, are forecast to show a 0.1% rise after slipping 0.2% in December. The

Baltics: Deflationary pressure
In Lithuania CPI deflation in February accelerated to -0.5% y/y from -0.1% y/y in January. In Latvia, CPI deflation reached -4.2 % y/y, significantly down from -3.1 % y/y in January. Details Lithuania and Latvia Statistics have today published CPI inflation numbers for February. As was broadly expected, the continuation of seasonal sales significantly contributed to a downward trend in both countries. In Lithuania, deflation stood at 0.5% y/y, while in Latvia, CPI deflation reached -4.2% y/y

Canada: Another strong increase from housing starts in February
Annual rate Latest : 196.7K (actual); 190.0K (forecast); Previous 185.4K (revised from 186.3K) FACTS : Canadian housing starts increased by 6.1% in February to 196.7K units from a downwardly revised 185.4K in December. Urban starts increased to 179.1K from 164.3K the previous month. Starts in rural areas slightly decreased to 17.6K from 21.1K. Single family starts in urban areas rose 0.45% to 89.2K while multiple starts in urban areas surged by 19.1% to 89.2K. On a regional basis, Ontario

March 2010

Non-Farm Payrolls Show Economy Shed a Smaller than Forecast 36K Jobs
The US economy shed fewer jobs than expected in February with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 9.7%. Non-farm payrolls fell by 36K jobs which followed a 26K decrease in January. Expectations had been for a drop in payrolls of 68K and a rise in the unemployment rate to 9.8% as economists had factored in the severe winter storms of Feb 4-7 and 9-11 which likely prevented a significant number of Americans from being counted. Also with blizzards hitting the East Coast, a densely populated

US: Employment - Focus on Trends, Not Volatility
Employment fell 36,000 yet the trend in employment remains upward, consistent with the trends outlined in our annual outlook. Private sector jobs (ex-construction) were up for second straight month. Employment and Hours on the Upswing Nonfarm employment is clearly in recovery mode. This pattern is seen in subsectors such as business services and temporary help. Gains in manufacturing jobs reflect the same sectors with gains in orders (e.g. machinery and metals). Hours worked feeds into

US: Weather-repellent survey shows job creation
The BLS employment report surprised on the upside in February. Payroll jobs were down 36,000 on the month, but this outcome was much better than consensus expectations of a decline of 68,000 and our own estimate calling for a weather-related drop of 150,000. This outcome is all the more encouraging given that BLS counted a million workers who could not get to work during to work on the month. So what is the underlying trend in U.S. labour markets? To find the answer, we recommend switching to

Preview: Non-Farm Payrolls
Change in Non-Farm Payrolls M/M (Feb) Exp. -68K (Prev. Jan. -20K, Dec. -150K) Morgan Stanley -65K BNP Paribas +30K JPMorgan -90K Credit Suisse -125K Goldman Sachs -100K Deutsche Bank -75K Bank of America -25K HSBC Markets +25K The analyst consensus is for a print of -68K non farm jobs with the majority of economists focusing on the impact of adverse weather conditions. Not working in a winter wonderland! Recent US economic data has been mixed as we head into the non-farm payrolls figure. On

Federal Budget - A budget that maintains Canada's brand
Highlights Budget deficits of $53.8 billion in the current fiscal year, $49.2 billion next year and $27.6 billion in 2011-12, declining to $1.8 billion (0.1% of GDP) in 2014-15. The budget maintains the $19-billion federal stimulus provided in Year 2 of Canada?s Economic Action Plan. New measures permanently increase the deficit by about $1 billion a year. They include elimination of all remaining tariffs on machinery, equipment and input goods imported by manufacturers. Federal transfers

An Expected Morning with US Statistics
Most of today's US statistics met or exceeded predictions with those from the housing market the lone exception. Fourth quarter non-farm productivity rose 6.9% as firms added work but not workers. This was an improvement on the preliminary release of 6.2% and the survey prediction for a rise of 6.3%. Unit labor costs, a sort of mirror image of productivity, fell 5.9% in the quarter, better than the initial -4.4% reading and also the -4.5% survey prediction. While the strong productivity gain

Slovakia: 4Q09 GDP growth
Foreign demand drove economy at the year-end, domestic demand stayed subdued The Statistical Office upped its flash 4Q GDP estimate by a notch from -2.7% y/y to -2.6% y/y (the pace GDP decline slowed down from -4.9% in 3Q). Quarterly seasonally-adjusted growth was confirmed at 2.0%. On an annual basis, the key GDP driver was foreign demand (government consumption also contributed positively, but the impact was mild). Expected re-stocking process is still not visible in the data. Households'

US: Factory Orders Get Lift From Aircraft Orders
Aircraft orders soared in January, helping total factory orders climb 1.7 percent for the month. Stripping out the contribution from aircraft and other transportation sectors, orders edged up only 0.1 percent. Slow Climb Back to the Peak Despite rising nine of the past ten months, factory orders are only about a third of the way back to their pre-recession peak. From the peak to where we are today, orders are still down 16.9 percent. New orders for non-defense capital goods, ex-aircraft

Euroland: Stable private consumption
Euroland GDP growth confirmed at 0.1% q/q in Q4, but overall growth in 2009 revised down from -4.0% to -4.1%. Domestic demand dragged down growth in Q4. On a positive note however, private consumption was unchanged against expectations of further decline. Car sales pulled up private consumption as car scrapping schemes came to an end in 2009. Retail sales still show a declining trend across Europe. Euroland is falling behind the US and Asia, but it does not look like a double dip at the

Bad weather may distort Friday's US nfp
Bad weather may distort Friday?s US nfp US February unemployment and nonfarm payrolls (nfp) will be released on Friday, March 5th at 8:30 EST. Two major snowstorms hit large portions of the US during February. The bad weather may distort the February unemployment report and contribute to larger than expected job losses. One of the snowstorms hit during the survey period for the February unemployment report and this could add as much as 100k or more to the nonfarm payrolls losses. Before the

US ISM Services Index Hits 2-Year High
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index posted a reading of 53.0 for February, climbing from 50.5 in January. The figure was better than forecast (51.0) and it?s the highest the index has been in two years showing that the services sector in the US perked up in the middle of the 1st quarter. The ISM non-manufacturing index had been in a narrow range between 48 and 51 since August, lagging the expansion pace seen in the manufacturing sector. The internals of the report showed the business activity

U.S.: Consumer discretionary spending at a record high
    Market Watch The consumer discretionary sector has been one of the top performing economic sectors of the S&P 500 in 2010 (up 3.5% YTD).  Even if this group trades at 15.8 times its 2010 estimated operating earnings, we remain comfortable with our current overweight stance. In our view, the bottom-up consensus calling for operating EPS of $15.03 is conservative. According to data released by the BEA earlier this week, personal consumption expenditures on discretionary

US: Update ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index jumped 2.5 points in February to 53.0. This is the second consecutive month that the index has come in above the benchmark of 50, illustrating that demand is beginning to improve outside of the manufacturing sector. Business activity picked-up with the index rising to 54.8 from 52.2. Furthermore, the new orders index came in strong at 55, indicating that business activity could continue to grow in the near-term. Also, the supplier deliveries index rose to 53.5

Canada: British Columbia Budget 2010 - September Update targets maintained
Today?s budget maintains the deficit reduction targets of last September?s Update. Elimination of the deficit remains targeted for 2013-14. Deficit elimination is to be accomplished by holding spending increases to an average 2.3% annually while budgetary revenue rises an average 4.9% annually. No funding is provided for wage increases in the current cycle of bargaining for labour contract renewals. Real GDP growth is assumed at 2.2% in 2010, 2.3% in 2011 and 2.7% in 2012. Natural gas is

US: ISM Services
A moderately improved US service industries outlook in February has given the recovery some statistical verification. The composite number at 53.0 was better than the 51.0 prediction. More tellingly new orders came in at 55.0 slightly ahead of January?s 54.7 and employment, long a loss leader in this survey jumped to 48.6 from 44.6 in January. New orders are just above the five year average of 53.2 and employment is just below the five year average of 48.8. While this survey has been steadily

US: Service Sector Solidly in Expansion Territory?Finally
The ISM non-manufacturing survey posted a 2.5 point gain to reach 53.0, the highest since October 2007. The underlying details are more clouded?activity and orders are up, but so are prices, and jobs remain scarce. A Vote of Confidence for the Service Sector The jump in the headline to 53.0 is a welcome sign of stability in the service sector. With new orders and business activity up, continued expansion is likely in coming months. With a slower pace of contraction reported for employment (up

IMF Doubles Inflation Target!
I grew up in Germany, a country that went through hyperinflation twice during the 20th Century. Maybe that's the reason I learned inflation is bad and inflationary policies are diabolic. Inflationary periods are highly unjust. They undermine the ethics of hard work and thrift. They destroy solidarity, lead to widespread hardship and often to social unrest. All these points are well documented in history. Many countries have suffered through the destruction brought on by huge surges of

Spain: Balance of payments December 2009

Spain: Registered unemployment February 2010

February 2010
Highlights Financial markets: T-bill rates further down Kuna under appreciation pressures Foreign debt reaches EUR 43.6bn 4Q GDP down 4.4% y/y Trade balance adjustment continues Unemployment rate hits 17.7% Financial markets: new bond issue ahead The bond market posted a mixed performance in February, as Eurobonds and FX-linked bonds recorded a yield decline on the short end (approx. 20bp), while on the longer end they moved in the opposite direction, increasing up to 30bp.That translated into

CAD holds its ground against the USD
Big Money is buying dollars hand over fist at the moment, especially against the Euro and the Cable. Investors have good reason to buy USD. The earthquake in Chile, the interest rate decisions for the Bank of Canada (Tuesday) and the Bank of England (Thursday), combined with this Friday?s US Non-Farm Payroll report give the risk averse plenty of reason to find safe havens for their coinage. Not to mention that from a fundamental point of view the Euro and the Cable have had strong selling

World: Global trade and IP surge in December
Copper prices are rallying on fears of supply  disruptions caused by the earthquakes in Chile. We think that the demand side of the equation should not be overlooked either. Just-released data released by the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) remain supportive of our scenario calling for strong economic growth in 2010. According to Dutch organization, world industrial output (IP) rose a robust 0.7% in December, the ninth consecutive monthly increase. As today?s Hot Chart shows,

US: ISM may have peaked, still suggests strong growth
The US ISM manufacturing index fell in February and the sub-indexes are in general not impressive, with an increase in the employment index being the main exception. Nevertheless, at the current level, the ISM would still flag manufacturing production growth at about 6-8% AR. We cannot rule out that January was the peak in the ISM but our models continue to point to an increase over the coming two to three months with a fair level around 60. Details The US ISM manufacturing index fell in

US: Construction Spending Fell in January
Total construction spending fell 0.6 percent in January, with downward revisions to November data. Private residential rose 1.3 percent with all of the gains in home improvements. Private nonresidential fell 2.1 percent. Residential Rose on Home Improvements Residential outlays increased 1.1 percent despite declines in both single and multi-family outlays. Single family fell 0.2 percent on the month, the first decline in eight months. Multi-family was down 11.1 percent on the month, the largest

Retail sales (Feb): Weather-related setback
Trade deficit (Jan): widening again Retail sales (Feb): weather-related setback UMI consumer sentiment: more or less unchanged After 13 consecutive declines, wholesale inventories had risen sharply in October and November. They fell by 0.8% mom in December, but we expect the inventory buildup to have resumed in January, and wholesale inventories could have gone up by 0.6% mom. Total business inventories , which fell slightly by 0.2% mom in December, are also likely to have increased in

Americas Calendar: Week of March 8 - 12, 2010
Monday, March 08, 2010 Economic 06:00 Brazil Feb Inflation, Chile Feb CPI 08:30 Canada Feb Housing Starts Events 17:00 Fed's Sack speaks to economists in Arlington. Cowen Healthcare Conference. Raymond James Institutional InvestorsConference. PSEG Analyst Day. Trades Ex-split: NCS 1-5. Ex-dividend:AEE $0.385, APC $0.09, BAX $0.29, BDX $0.37, CME $1.15, CEG $0.24, NTRS$0.28, OXY $0.33, POM $0.27, RAI $0.90, TRV $0.33. Earnings Before the Open: COMV, DGW, FREE, PARD, YGE . After the Close: CAP,

EMU industrial production (January): Up
Output in the German producing sector (January): unchanged or up EMU industrial production (January): up After having plummeted in December, output in the German producing sector is not expected to have decreased again in January . Industrial output is likely to have gone up, as most of the correlated climate indicators improved. Industrial new orders soared in January, but mainly because of bulk orders, which tend to be carried out with delay. However, construction output has declined due to

March 2010

ISM indices (Feb): Gap between the two indices somewhat narrower
PCE core deflator (Jan): annual rate approaching lower end of Fed?s comfort zone ISM indices (Feb): gap between the two indices somewhat narrower Labour market report (Feb): snowstorms could have interrupted the trend of improving payroll data In 2009, average personal income fell for the first time ever, by 1.4% yoy. However, after 11 consecutive declines, a slight increase of 0.5% yoy was registered in December. We forecast that personal income will have gone up by 0.5% mom and 2.3% yoy in

German industrial new orders (January): Up
German retail sales (January): down German industrial new orders (January): up EMU inflation flash estimate (February): inflation down ECB: set to discuss further steps towards normalising money market conditions After having plummeted in December, German industrial new orders are expected to have recovered in January, as most of the correlated indicators improved. However, German retail sales are likely to have suffered a setback in January, because German consumer confidence and retailers?

Americas Calendar: Week of March 1 - 5,2010
Monday, March 01, 2010 Economic 08:00 Brazil Feb PMI Manufacturing 08:30 Jan Personal Income (last 0.4%), Jan Personal Spending (last 0.2%), Jan PCE Deflator y/y (last 2.1%), Jan PCE Core (last m/m 0.1%, y/y 1.5%), Canada Q4 GDP 10:00 Feb ISM Manufacturing (last 58.4), Feb ISM Prices Paid (last 70), Jan Construction Spending m/m (last -1.2%) Events 08:45 Fed's Lacker to speak to international bankers in Washington. 15:30 Former Fed Chairman Volcker speaks in San Francisco. Bank of America

March 2010 Economic Calendar

Consumer confidence indicators (Feb): Up modestly
Durable goods orders (Jan): lifted by higher transportation orders GDP (Q4 2nd estimate): moderate downward revision due to higher oil imports Consumer confidence went up from 53.6 to 55.9 in January, as the current assessment, though still very low, improved by 5 points. In February, the University of Michigan?s (UMI) preliminary consumer sentiment fell from 74.4 to 73.7 on lower expectations, but, as the graph shows, it remained relatively high compared to the Conference Board?s indicator.

Americas Calendar: Week of February 22 - 26,2010
Monday, February 22, 2010 Economic 10:00 Jan Chicago Fed Activity (last -0.61) 10:30 Feb Dallas Fed Manufacturing (last 8.3%) 13:00 Treasury's $8B 30-yr TIPS auction Events 11:00 Fed's Yellen speaks on US economy. 08:30 FDA Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory CommitteeMeeting. Goldman Sachs Technology Conference. HON investor conference. Ex-dividend: MFC $0.13, MHP $0.235. Earnings Before the Open: COG, CPB , CEG, CEP, ENDP, GEO, LECO, LOW , MDAS, OIS, ORBK, PWR, VCI, VRX. After

EMU economic sentiment (February): Unchanged
German ifo business climate (February): slightly up EMU industrial confidence (February): up EMU economic sentiment (February): unchanged German adjusted unemployment (February): sharp increase due to snow and cold weather M3 growth (January): slightly positive, temporarily German CPI inflation (January): lower The ifo business climate for Germany could have continued to improve in February , albeit only slightly, as the correlated indicators have sent mixed signals: the US ISM manufacturing

Consumer prices (Jan): Annual rate up again
First regional manufacturing indices (Feb): more or less stable Housing starts (Jan): up after weather-related drop in December Industrial production (Jan): rebound in manufacturing Consumer prices (Jan): annual rate up again In January, the New York Empire manufacturing index surged from 4.5 to 15.9. Nevertheless, it only partly rebounded from its December plunge. As we expect the inventory cycle to have continued to have a positive impact on manufacturing, the New York Empire could have

Americas Calendar: Week of February 15 - 19, 2010
Monday, February 15, 2010 Economic 06:30 Chile Jan Copper Exports Events Bond and equity markets closed for President's Day Holiday. Earnings Before the Open: SIHI. After the Close: CCM, DOLE. Tuesday, February 16, 2010 Economic 08:30 Feb Empire Manufacturing (last 15.92) 09:00 Dec Net Long-Term TIC Flows (last $126.8B), Dec Total Net TIC Flows (last $26.6B) 13:00 Feb NAHB Housing Index (last 15) 14:00 Jan Monthly Budget Statement (last -$63.5B) Events 12:00Fed's Hoenig speaks on budget

PMI manufacturing index EMU (February): Slightly up
German ZEW economic sentiment (February): unchanged PMI manufacturing index EMU (February): slightly up The German ZEW economic sentiment could have remained more or less unchanged in February , as the correlated indicators sent mixed signals. The ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index have both improved. The euro has depreciated and crude oil prices have gone down. However, German yield spreads have narrowed, as long-term interest rates have decreased more than

Retail sales (Jan): Up after drop in December
Trade deficit (Dec): slightly wider, but only in nominal terms Retail sales (Jan): up after drop in December UMI consumer sentiment (Feb): down somewhat after soaring in January According to the first GDP estimate for Q4, inventories contributed 3.4 percentage points to the 5.7% increase in GDP in annualised terms. The Department of Commerce nevertheless assumed that wholesale, retail and factory inventories will have decreased in December. Thus wholesale inventories, which had risen by more

Americas Calendar: Week of February 8 - 12, 2010
Monday, February 08, 2010 Economic 06:00 Chile Jan CPI 06:30 Chile Jan Trade Balance 08:30 Canada Jan Housing Starts Events Bankof America India Investor Conference. Deutsche Bank Small and Mid CapConference. Thomas Weisel Technology & Telecom Conference. UBSGlobal Healthcare Services Conference. Biotechnology Industry CEO andInvestor Conference. Ex-dividend: AEP $0.41, CTAS $0.48, IBM, $0.55,XLNX $0.16, XOM $0.42. Earnings Before the Open: AMRI, AGNC, BWP, CGA, CHDX, CNA, CVS , GWR, HAS ,

EMU GDP (Q4): Up
German GDP (Q4) : unchanged  EMU GDP (Q4): up  EMU industrial production (December): up On 12 February, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is publishing its ?flash release? on German Q4 GDP; a detailed breakdown of the components will follow on 24 February. As already suggested by Destatis, German GDP growth will probably have remained unchanged quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2009. Italian GDP could have stagnated in Q4 too, as industrial production decreased in that period.

ISM indices (Jan): higher again
Personal spending (Dec): up despite drop in retail sales ISM indices (Jan): higher again Labour market report (Jan): modest increase in nonfarm payrolls Personal income increased by 0.4% mom in November, but was still 0.3% points lower than the previous year. However, due to various fiscal measures, disposable income was 3% higher than in November 2008. According to the GDP data for Q4, personal income could have gone up again by 0.4% mom in December. The data suggest that personal spending,

February 2010

February 2010 Economic Calendar

Americas Calendar: Week of February 1 - 5, 2010
Monday, February 01, 2010 Economic 07:00 Brazil Jan PMI Manufacturing 08:30 Dec Personal Income (last 0.4%), Dec Personal Spending (last 0.5%), Dec PCE Deflator y/y (last 1.5%), Dec PCE Core (last m/m 0.0%, y/y 1.4%) 10:00 Dec ISM Manufacturing (last 55.9), Dec ISM Prices Paid (last 61.5), Dec Construction Spending m/m (last -0.6%) 15:00 Treasury quarterly funding estimates Events 10:00 Treasury Sec Geithner to testify before Senate Finance Committee. 12:00 Treasury's Barr to speak at

Output in the German producing sector (December): Weak
German retail sales (December): up German industrial new orders (December): weak Output in the German producing sector (December): weak After having soared in November, German industrial new orders and output in the German producing sector are expected to have suffered a setback in December . However, they are unlikely to have decreased, as most of the correlated indicators improved. In December, German retail sales are likely to have recovered from their drop the previous month. However,

GDP (Q4): Inventories driving growth
Consumer confidence indicators (Jan): stable at best  FOMC rate decision: slight changes in the wording of the statement  Durable goods orders (Dec): rebound in aircraft orders  GDP (Q4): inventories driving growth Given that pending home sales plummeted by 16% mom in November, we expect existing home sales, which tend to lag by one or two months, to have dropped significantly in December, from 6.54m to 5.80m. New home sales already plunged in November from 400k to 355k ? their

Americas Calendar: Week of January 25 - 29, 2010
Monday, January 25, 2010 Economic 10:00 Dec Existing Home Sales (last 6.54M, m/m 7.4%) 10:30 Jan Dallas Fed Manufacturing (last 3.8%) Events BoJ Rate Decision . Ex-dividend: PGR $0.161, CALM $0.172. Earnings Before the Open: AKS , BOH, CNH, ETN, HAL , ERIC, PVTB, DGX , SEE. After the Close: ALB, ALGT, AMGN , AAPL , ATHR, CLDN, CR, GGG, HTLF, JEC, JDAS, KRC, MSPD, NARA, OLN, PKG, PRXL, PLXT, RLRN, RLI, SLG, TXN , VMW , VLTR, ZION. Tuesday, January 26, 2010 Economic 05:00 Brazil Jan Consumer

EMU inflation flash estimate (January): Inflation up
German ifo business climate (January): unchanged EMU economic sentiment and industrial confidence (January): unchanged German CPI inflation (January): increasing, but still low EMU inflation flash estimate (January): inflation up German adjusted unemployment (January): cold weather could have had a negative impact M3 growth (December): slightly negative The ifo business climate for Germany will probably have remained unchanged in January . The US ISM manufacturing index has risen, but the

Leading indicators (Dec): Ninth increase in a row
Housing starts (Dec): only up slightly Philadelphia Fed index (Jan): down somewhat after two consecutive improvements Leading indicators (Dec): ninth increase in a row The NAHB index, which had risen from its low of 6 in January 2009 to 18 by September, declined again slightly to 16 in December. This was due to falling expectations for sales of single-family homes. We predict that the NAHB index will have remained unchanged in January. The disappointing performance of the NAHB index suggests

Americas Calendar: Week of January 18 - 22, 2010
Monday, January 18, 2010 Economic None Seen Events Bond and equity markets closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday. Earnings None Seen Tuesday, January 19, 2010 Economic 09:00 BoC Rate Decision , Nov Net Long-Term TIC Flows (last $20.7B), Nov Total Net TIC Flows (last -$13.9B) 13:00 Jan NAHB Housing Market Index (last 16) Events PGNEarnings Guidance. ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales (7:45, last -3%).Redbook Retail Sales (8:55, last +1.4%). ABC Consumer Confidence (last-47). Trades

PMI manufacturing index EMU (January): Up
German ZEW economic sentiment (January): up PMI manufacturing index EMU (January): up The German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have improved in January , just like the ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index. German yield spreads widened initially, but have now narrowed again slightly, just like long-term interest rates, whereas short-term rates have decreased. After having depreciated initially, the euro has now appreciated somewhat. The DAX has continued going up.

January 2010

Retail sales (Dec): Another increase led by car sales
Trade deficit (Nov): widening due to higher import prices Retail sales (Dec): another increase led by car sales Consumer prices (Dec): moderate rise due to lower gasoline prices NY Empire manufacturing index (Jan): rebound after December plunge Industrial production (Dec): utilities and the inventory cycle have a positive impact UMI consumer sentiment (Jan): stable after marked improvement in December The trade deficit narrowed significantly in October, from $35.7bn to $32.9bn. This was due

ECB council: No change
German GDP 2009 growth: at record low EMU industrial production (November) : more or less unchanged ECB council: no change German GDP growth in 2009 might turn out to have been somewhat less negative than our forecast, as the data of the first three quarters of the year could be revised. However, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is not publishing any quarterly data on 13 January. A ?flash release? on German Q4 GDP will be published on 12 February; a detailed breakdown of the

Americas Calendar: Week of January 11 - 15,2010
Monday, January 11, 2010 Economic 10:00 Mexico final Nov Trade Balance (last 92.9M) 10:30 Q4 Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey (last 6.7) 13:00 Treasury's 10-yr TIPS auction Events 12:45 Fed's Lockhart to speak on the US economic outlook. Cowen Consumer Conference, JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, JefferiesGlobal Healthcare Conference, Sidoti Microcap Conference. TFX 2010outlook. LUNA corporate update. Earnings Before the Open: MDRX , HELE. After the Close: AA , WDFC. Tuesday, January

Labour market report (Dec): deterioration abating
ISM indices (Dec): showing little growth Labour market report (Dec): deterioration abating The ISM manufacturing index declined from 55.7 to 53.6 in November, and we expect it to have fallen further to about 53.0 in December. The first regional manufacturing indices for December showed mixed results: the Chicago PMI jumped to 60.0 and the Philadelphia Fed index rose again, albeit remaining on a relatively low level. However, the New York Empire plummeted from 23.5 to a mere 2.6, and the

Americas Calendar: Week of January 4 - 8,2010
Monday, January 04, 2010 Economic 8:00am Brazil Dec Trade Balance (last $615M) 10:00am Dec ISM Manufacturing (last 53.6), Prices Paid (last 55); Nov Construction Spending (last 0.0%) Events 10:15amET Fed's Lockhart at a financial crisis panel in Atlanta, 1:15pmET Fed's Duke speaks on the economy , Trades Ex-dividend: GPS $0.085, CLI $0.45 Earnings None Seen Tuesday, January 05, 2010 Economic 10:00am Nov Factory Orders (last 0.6%); Nov Pending Home sales (last 3.7% m/m, 28.6% y/y) 4:30pm API

German industrial new orders (November): rebound
EMU inflation flash estimate (December): higher inflation EMU economic sentiment and industrial confidence (December): up German adjusted unemployment (December): cold weather could have had a negative impact German industrial new orders (November): rebound Output in the German producing sector (November): rebound German retail sales (November): slightly up The Eurostat flash estimate is likely to show that euro area inflation increased but is still quite weak. We expect an inflation rate of

Chicago PMI (Dec): Marked downward correction
Consumer confidence (Dec): rebound sparked by improvement in the labour market Chicago PMI (Dec): marked downward correction The Conference Board?s consumer confidence had reached 54.5 in August, but by November, it had fallen back five points. However, given that the University of Michigan?s consumer sentiment rose by six points to 73.4 in the preliminary December survey, we predict that consumer confidence will also have gone up markedly. The Conference Board?s indicator reacts quite

Week of December 28, 2009 - January 1, 2010
Monday, December 28, 2009 Economic 10:30am Dec Dallas Fed Manufacturing (last 0.3%) 1:00pm Treasury's 2 year note auction Events Ex-dividend: KFT $0.29, CPB $0.275. Earnings Before the Open: CALM, NWPX After the Close: BLSW Tuesday, December 29, 2009 Economic 9:00am Oct S&P/CS Home Price Index (last 146.51), Oct S&P/CS Composite-20 (last -9.36%) 10:00am Dec Consumer Confidence (last 49.5) 1:00pm Treasury's 5 year note auction 4:30pm API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories Events

January 2010 Economic Calendar

Bank Holidays
Australia Fri, Jan 1 2010 New Year's Day Tue, Jan 26 2010 Australia Day Fri, Apr 2 2010 Good Friday Mon, Apr 5 2010 Easter Monday Mon, Apr 26 2010 ANZAC Day Mon, Jun 14 2010 Queen's Birthday Mon, Aug 2 2010 August Bank Holiday Mon, Oct 4 2010 Labour Day Sat, Dec 25 2010 Christmas Day Sun, Dec 26 2010 Boxing Day Mon, Dec 27 2010 Boxing Day Observed Canada Fri, Jan 1 2010 New Year's Day Fri, Apr 2 2010 Good Friday Mon, Apr 5 2010 Eastern Monday Mon, May 24 2010 Victoria Day Thu, Jul 1 2010

Home sales (Nov): Up again, albeit more moderately
PCE core deflator (Nov): Annual rate set to remain unchanged Durable goods orders (Nov): Rising after decline in October The second estimate of GDP for Q3 showed a downward revision of the growth rate from 3.5% qoq annualised to 2.7% qoq. This was mainly due to an upward correction in imports; consumer spending was less robust and commercial construction declined even more than previously estimated. We expect the third estimate to confirm the growth rate at around 2.8% qoq. Existing home sales