Financial News

US: core disinflation continues
Core inflation continues to move lower. We expect that it will move below 1% in a few months and reach close to 0.5% by end-2010. With the outlook for only moderate gains in the oil price and the basis effect turning slightly negative, headline inflation will be approaching 1.5% by mid- 2010 and remain below 2% for the rest of the year. Details The downward trend in core inflation clearly remains in place, with most components now contributing negatively. Most of the downward pressure is

US: It's a Hat-Trick?All Composite Indexes Portend Recovery
The leading economic index increased 0.1 percent in February; a slower increase than has been recorded in recent months but a gain nonetheless. Easy policy supports the index, but consumers continue to struggle. It?s a Hat-Trick, Finally While the leading index has been notching monthly gains for the past year, the coincident index was slower to post outright gains, and until this month, the lagging index, a backward-looking series, had not yet ceased its declines. The lagging index notching a

US: Philadelphia Fed Index: Continued Improvement in March
Regional manufacturing activity in the Third District continued to improve in March. The Philadelphia Fed general activity index gained 1.3 points to 18.9, and most sub-indexes showed continued growth. General Activity Improved but New Orders Slowed The general activity index improved in March but indicators of demand, new orders and shipments, slowed. The new orders index slipped to 9.3 from 22.7 after last month?s outsized 20-point gain. The shipments index fell to 13.6 from 19.7. These

US: Consumer Prices Showed Little Change in February
Consumer prices edged just slightly higher on the month, up less than 0.1 percent. Declines in energy prices and a flat reading from the housing component offset gains in food and medical care costs. Prices Slightly Higher in February Prices gained ever so slightly on the headline, while core prices gained 0.1 percent in February. Inflation remains a non-issue in the near-term. Housing remains in over-supply and as a result pricing will remain weak for both rental and for-sale housing. Shelter

Pound Rallies on Positive Jobs Data
The Pound strengthened against the Dollar, breaking decidedly above an important level of resistance at the 1.52 area and hitting its highest level versus the US Dollar since February 25th. The catalyst for the move was a much better employment report ? the claimant count ? for the month of February. The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefits fell by 32.3K when forecasts had that figure rising 8.2K. Not only that, but the data for January was revised sharply down to show a much

US: Update Producer Price Index
Following four months of advances, headline producer price inflation eased in February. Producer prices dropped 0.6% on a monthly basis following a 1.4% rise in January. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 4.6%, compared to 5.0% in the previous month. The main driver was a 7.4% drop in gasoline prices, which pushed down energy prices by 2.9% following a four month long rally. Prices of home heating oil and distillates also declined 5.6% while residential gas and electricity prices rose 0.8%

Canada: Manufacturing labour productivity has a long way to go
According to data released yesterday by Statistics Canada, manufacturing labour productivity jumped an annualized 9.0% in Q4, with production up 4.5% and hours worked down 4.1%. This productivity gain exceeds the 6.6% increase observed for U.S. manufacturing over the same quarter. Have Canadian manufacturers started to play catch up? In any event, they still have a long way to go. As today?s Hot Chart shows, since 2004Q2, where the last peak in hours worked in Canadian factories took place,

US: Energy Prices Pull Headline Wholesale Prices Lower
The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.6 percent in February driven by a decrease in energy prices. Core PPI rose 0.1 percent. Measures of economic slack continue to suggest inflationary pressures are benign. Headline Driven Lower by Decline in Energy Prices The PPI for total finished goods fell 0.6 percent in February, fueled by a decrease in gasoline prices, which fell 7.4 percent on the month. Food prices rose 0.4 percent pushed higher by fresh and dry vegetables and eggs. Capital equipment

The FOMC meeting in unusual one-day session left Fed Funds target rate unchanged
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting in unusual one-day session left the Fed Funds target rate unchanged at 0.0%-0.25% as had been widely expected. Also unaltered was the characterization of the economy as ?likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period?. The descriptive sections on economic activity, household and business spending and inflation are unchanged from the January 27 statement. A ?weak labor market? has become ?high employment?.

Germany's ZEW Sentiment Slightly Better Than Expected; EU Ministers Agree on Greece Deal
The ZEW confidence index fell for a sixth straight month for the March period as the troubles round Greece continued during the month and has shaken up financial markets to the point at which it affected the recovery of the Euro-zone. However, the index did not slide as much as forecast which could mean that the fallout has been factored in and that investors and analysts are again looking at the fundamentals which showed some improvement recently, as in the industrial production data released

US: Update Housing Starts
Housing starts remained weak in February as they dropped 5.9% to 575K after rising 6.6% in January. Due to volatility in monthly data, housing start trends can be best identified by the four month moving average, which has remained relatively flat for the past seven months. While starts have risen from their low of 479K in April 2009, the flat trend indicates that recovery in residential construction will continue at a slow pace. February?s starts were dragged down by a sharp drop in

Canada: Factory sales jumped 2.4% in January
Manufacturing sales Latest: +2.4% (Actual) +0.6% (Expected) Previous: +1.9% (upwardly revised from +1.6%) FACTS: Factory sales jumped 2.4% in January, the fifth monthly rise in a row, after an upwardly revised gain of 1.9% in December. January?s advance was widespread, as 17 of 21 industries reported gains. Primary metals (+8.5%) contributed to a quarter of January?s advance. The contribution of petroleum & coal products (+3.4%) was also important, although in this case it was

US: Import Prices Swing on Petroleum Costs
Import prices fell 0.3 percent in the month of February, pulled lower by a drop in fuel prices. While petroleum prices fell on the month, they remain much higher than year-ago levels. Monthly Drop in Import Prices? Blame Petroleum Petroleum import prices fell 2.2 percent in February, which helped pull overall import prices lower for the month. Outside of the volatile petroleum component, import prices actually climbed marginally?up 0.2 percent for the month. Export prices also came down in the

US: Housing Starts Fell Modestly in February
Housing starts fell 5.9 percent in February, with construction of multi-family units accounting for most of the drop. Starts of new single-family homes fell 0.6 percent, while multi-family starts tumbled 30.3 percent. Homebuilding Is Stabilizing Near Current Levels Housing starts fell 5.9 percent in February as another huge decline in multi-family starts overwhelmed a slight drop in single-family home construction. Starts of apartments and condominiums have been held back by a lack of financing

Germany: ZEW current conditions improve
In March German ZEW expectations fell for a sixth month in a row. The indicator however still stands well above its historical average of 27.2. Financial sector sentiment is still burdened by concerns about the fiscal sustainability in the region, but good news in January with respect to industrial production probably lifted the assessment of the current economic conditions. If fears over the Greek fiscal situation abate, we look for a rebound in ZEW expectations during H1 10. However, the

Look Ahead: US Fundamental Docket for March 15th-19th
FOMC Decision and Statement This week?s key fundamental release will be Tuesday?s FOMC interest rate meeting. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to offer any hints about raising interest rates and a renewed commitment to ultra-low rates could put the Dollar on the defensive. The possibility that the Fed would raise rates sooner had been a source of support for the greenback but until there is some positive job growth and inflation readings begin to heat up it is unlikely, with other uncertainties

Canada: The home resale market returns to balanced conditions
According to statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), seasonally adjusted national home sales edged down 1.5% in February, a second drop in a row, while new listings climbed 2.4%, a fifth consecutive increase. As today?s Hot Chart shows, in February, the ratio of new listings to sales, a major indicator of market conditions in Canada, left the ?favourable to sellers? zone to the ?balanced market? zone. This development means that market tightness is now a

US: Industrial Production Eked out a Small Gain in February
Industrial production rose just 0.1 percent in February as gains in utility and mining output offset a decline in manufacturing. Weakness in that sector was concentrated in the motor vehicle industry. Output Climbed Despite Manufacturing Decline Manufacturing output dropped 0.2 percent in February as a 4.4 percent decline in motor vehicle production weighed on the sector. Information processing equipment saw its fifth straight gain while consumer goods notched a small decline. Cold weather

UMich Consumer Confidence Dips Mid-March
Current Ind.: 80.8, pr. 81.8 (Feb), 81.1 (Jan), 78.0 (Dec), 68.8 (Nov), 73.7 (Oct), 73.4 (Sep), 66.6 (Aug), 70.5 (Jul) Expectations: 67.2, pr. 68.4 (Feb), 70.1 (Jan), 68.9 (Dec), 66.5 (Nov), 68.6 (Oct), 73.5 (Sep), 65.0 (Aug), 63.2 (Jul) 12-Mo Infl.: 2.8%, pr. 2.7% (Feb), 2.8% (Jan), 2.5% (Dec), 2.7% (Nov), 2.9% (Oct), 2.2% (Sep), 2.8% (Aug), 2.9% (Jul) 5-Yr Infl.: 2.7%, pr. 2.9% (Feb), 2.9% (Jan), 2.7% (Dec), 3.0% (Nov), 2.9% (Oct), 2.8% (Sep), 2.8% (Aug), 3.0% (Jul) Consumer sentiment dipped

US: Inventories Flat in January
The minor movements in inventories among manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers together resulted in no net change in inventory levels at U.S. businesses. Sales continued to grow, but at a slower pace. No Net Change in Stocks, but Sales Improving Manufacturers posted a small increase in inventories, while destocking continued at retailers and wholesalers. The slight changes resulted in no net change for total business inventory. On a year-over-year basis, inventory levels remain down nearly

US: consumers defeat snowstorms
February data released today revealed another strong month for retail sales in spite of snowstorms hitting the East coast. Underlying growth in retail sales is now back close to the growth rates that prevailed before the recession and real consumption in Q1 is tracking around 3.0% q/q AR. We expect improvement in the labour market to support the current spending recovery through the rest of the year, although the growth momentum is likely to slow somewhat. Details Retail sales showed a strong

US: Retail sales surge in February
Even if U.S. consumers are not very confident, they sure are spending. Retail sales shattered expectations in February with a 0.3% gain, the fifth increase in seven months. This performance was all the more remarkable given that the February data were negatively impacted by the blizzards that hit the U.S. East coast. If we exclude motor vehicles and gasoline, retail spending surged 0.8%, the second largest monthly increase in a year. Some pundits may argue that a month does not a trend make.

US Update: Retail Sales
Consumer demand picked-up in February as retail sales rose 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in January. Furthermore, retail sales were 3.9% stronger than those a year ago, marking the fourth consecutive month that retail sales have risen on a year-over-year basis. These results indicate that consumer spending is strengthening and will contribute to GDP growth in 1Q10. Sluggish auto sales, which dropped 2.4%, dragged down total sales. In fact, retail sales excluding autos rose 0.6%. The increase was

US: Retail Sales Showed Solid Gains in February
Sales at the nation?s retailers climbed 0.3 percent in February and after stripping out automotive dealers and gasoline stations, gains were even better ? up 0.9 percent. Sales Gains Were Broad Based Sales gains were broad based as only two categories (motor vehicles and health & personal care) showed declines. Strong gains were seen at electronics stores as well as food & beverage retailers. Our preferred measure of ?core? sales, which removes gasoline, building materials and autos

US: Retail Sales Began Year With Gains
Sales at the nation?s retailers climbed 0.5 percent in January with solid gains across most retail categories. ?Core? sales (ex-gas, building materials and autos) climbed 0.8 percent as 2010 started on an up note. Sales Higher Across Most Segments Year-over-year comparisons have become easier and sales were up nearly 5 percent over last January. While we are not expecting the consumer to come roaring back in the near-term, improvements have been quicker than expected considering the

Canadian employment: a brighter picture than at first glance
Latest (monthly change): +20.9k (Actual); +15.5k (expected) Previous: +43.0k FACTS: Total employment rose 20.9K in February, following a robust gain of 43.0K in January. Gains were concentrated in full-time employment (+60.2K) while part-time jobs fell by 39.3K. The public sector added 45.6K jobs while a loss of 7.5K was observed in the private sector and a decrease of 17.2K for the self-employed. The goods-producing sector amassed 17.8K positions with the largest increase coming from

Eurozone: a few thoughts on the January IP report
EMU ? IP (Jan): 1.7% UniCredit: 1.0% ------ Consensus: 0.7% ----- Last: 0.6% Eurozone IP in January was stronger than expected, though the 1.7% mom increase is not overly surprising after solid readings in France and Italy ? as a matter of fact, a weighted average of national data suggested a 1.5% outcome for the eurozone today. In yearly terms, production was back in positive territory (+1.4%) for the first time since April 2008. On a 3M/3M basis, the growth rate is a strong 2.6%. The main

Spain: Consumer price index February 2010

Trade Deficit Narrows in Jan as Imports and Exports Both Drop
The US trade deficit narrowed to $37.29B in January from a downwardly revised $39.9B shortfall in December. Expectations had been for a trade gap of $40.8 billion. Exports decreased 0.3%, but imports fell a larger 1.7%. Imports fell to $180B from $183.1B in December as the US imported 245 million barrels of oil, the fewest since February 1999. The decrease in volume swamped what was an increase in oil prices during that time. Also, purchases of foreign-made automobiles and parts dropped by

US Jobless Claims Decline 6K, Is Positive Job Growth on the Horizon?
Jobless Claims Decline by 6K, Job Growth on the Horizon? The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits declined by 6K to 462K for the week ending March 6th. It was the second weekly drop in a row and can be a sign that the climb in weekly claims seen the past two months may be arresting. The rise in January and February can be attributed to some temporary factors, including very strong winter weather in the country. For the economy to post positive job growth jobless claims have to

U.S.: Nonfinancial debt growth the lowest ever
U.S. Watch To financial markets, massive U.S. federal deficits and consequent debt piling is a concern. As today?s Hot Chart shows, it might be reassuring to know that despite an annualized 12.6% increase in federal debt in Q4, domestic nonfinancial debt rose 1.6%, the lowest growth rate since at least 1952. This growth rate does not exceed CPI core inflation, a rare occurrence outside inflation spikes. This slowdown in domestic nonfinancial debt growth is due to the deleveraging that is

Canada: Trade balance remains in surplus in January
Trade balance remains in surplus in January Latest: +$0.8B (Actual) +$0.4B (Expected) Previous: +$0.1B (revised up from -$0.2B) FACTS: The Canadian trade balance registered a $0.8B surplus in January, after two $0.01 surpluses in December and November (small deficits initially reported - top chart). In January, exports grew $0.153B or 0.5%. Advances in exports of industrial goods and materials (+$0.3B), consumer goods (+$0.1B) and agricultural and fishing products (+$0.1) were partly offset by

Hungary: CPI slowed to 5.7% y/y in February
Consumer prices rose 0.3% m/m in February, while the 12-month CPI rate slowed to 5.7% from the 6.4% published for January. Our expectation for the y/y rate was 6%, while the market consensus was 6.1%-6.2%. Volatile food prices - which caused negative surprise in January, increasing by 2.2% on the monthly level - rose just 0.3% m/m in February. Household energy prices increased by a moderate 0.3% m/m, within which purchased heating prices decreased by 3.4% m/m - due to the lower VAT rate -

Canada's jobs growth likely slowed in February
The CAD is trading at a two month high versus the USD and has made substantial gains versus European currencies. The outperformance of the CAD is attributed to recent Canadian economic data that points to a stronger than expected Canadian recovery. Canada?s Q4 GDP rose at its fastest space nine years reported at 5%. Canada also reported stronger than expected housing data, improvement in the manufacturing sector and rising employment. CAD is also supported by BOC policy outlook and rising

March 2010 - Cold shower for British pound
The markets are surprised at the sluggishness of the recovery in the United Kingdom. In 2009Q4, the UK?s economic performance paled miserably compared with the 5% and 5.9% growth posted by Canada and the United States, respectively. Other factors also seem to be at the root of the British pound?s tumble. Political uncertainty is making markets fear the worst about the government?s capacity to resolve the impasse of an alarming budget situation. However, the pound?s recent downslide must be put

China: When will exports revert to pre-crisis levels?
The resource sectors of the S&P/TSX retreated on Tuesday after the release of Chinese trade data which showed the second consecutive monthly decline in exports. According to a NY times article, the Chinese commerce minister, Chen Deming, cautioned that it will be two to three years before China's exports return to pre-crisis levels. This is a rather odd comment that is probably aimed at diffusing calls for Yuan appreciation. While it is true that Chinese exports fell on a sequential basis

US: Another Inventory Contraction for Wholesale Sector, Sales up
Inventory at U.S. wholesalers declined 0.2 percent in January, a much slower pace than the -1.0 percent seen in December of last year. Sales were up broadly, causing some improvement to the inventory-sales ratio. Sales Gains have been Consistent, Inventories Less So Wholesalers reduced inventory in Jan. for the second straight month. While the brief build in Oct. and Nov. has not been sustained, the drawdown is convincingly losing steam. While inventories have fluctuated somewhat, gains in

Hungary: GDP declined 4% y/y
In line with the flash estimate, the Hungarian GDP declined 4% y/y in 4Q09. Taking the calendar effect into consideration, the economy dropped by 4.1% y/y in October-December last year. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP declined by 0.4%. As for the breakdown of the figures (based on final use), households? final consumption was down 5.7% y/y (after - 8.8% y/y in 3Q). The fall of investments was 8.1% y/y. The contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth remained negative also in 4Q (-7.8

Preview of US jobless claims and retail sales
Jobless claims The Fed's Evans ties US monetary policy outlook to the labor market. According to Evans, the Fed will need to keep monetary policy accommodative for quite some time because of the weak US labor market. Evan?s specifically cited the length of unemployment as indicative of a weak labor market. He also appeared to leave the door open for possible future asset purchases by the Fed as a way of trying to boost growth and combat the magnitude of US unemployment. Thursday March 11th

Mexico: Too Strategic To Fail With Strong Long Term Fundamentals
HIGHLIGHTS In 2009, Mexico's GDP dropped by 7%, which was among the worst performances in the world and underscored its dependence on the U.S. consumer. The country was also afflicted by high levels of drug and other criminal violence, declining oil production, an ineffective and often corrupt regulatory system and a serious fiscal situation. While growth is expected to be modest in the next couple of years, the country's long-term economic, social and political fundamentals are strong enough

Housing starts (Feb): Setback caused by snow storms
First regional manufacturing indices (Mar): downward correction Industrial production (Feb): decline due to adverse weather conditions Housing starts (Feb): setback caused by snow storms Inflation data (Feb): moderating due to drop in energy prices The New York Empire manufacturing index jumped from 17.2 to 24.9 in February, but this strength was not mirrored in the subcomponents, as new orders, shipments and supplier deliveries all deteriorated. In addition, expectations were less optimistic.

Americas Calendar: Week of March 15 - 19, 2010
Monday, March 15, 2010 Economic 08:30 March Empire Manufacturing, Chile Feb Copper Exports 09:00 Jan Net Long-Term TIC Flows, Jan Total Net TIC Flows 09:15 Feb Industrial Production, Feb Capacity Utilization 13:00 March NAHB Housing Index Events RothGrowth Stock Conference. UBS Asset Gatherers' Conference. UBS LifeSciences Investor Conference. Ex-dividend: HPQ $0.08, AVF $0.481. Earnings Before the Open: AAON, AOB, GSOL, GTXI, HWCC, RDNT, SGK, STRL. After the Close: ATHN , ESC, GOK, HQS, SSW,

German ZEW economic sentiment (March): Slightly down
The German ZEW economic sentiment could have continued deteriorating in March , as the correlated indicators sent rather negative signals. The ifo business expectations have improved, but the US ISM manufacturing index has declined. The euro has depreciated, but crude oil prices have gone up. German yield spreads have fluctuated, just like long-term interest rates, while short-term rates have remained fairly stable. However, the DAX has risen again. Following their usual seasonal pattern, the

Retail sales (Feb): Weather-related setback
Trade deficit (Jan): widening again Retail sales (Feb): weather-related setback UMI consumer sentiment: more or less unchanged After 13 consecutive declines, wholesale inventories had risen sharply in October and November. They fell by 0.8% mom in December, but we expect the inventory buildup to have resumed in January, and wholesale inventories could have gone up by 0.6% mom. Total business inventories , which fell slightly by 0.2% mom in December, are also likely to have increased in

Americas Calendar: Week of March 8 - 12, 2010
Monday, March 08, 2010 Economic 06:00 Brazil Feb Inflation, Chile Feb CPI 08:30 Canada Feb Housing Starts Events 17:00 Fed's Sack speaks to economists in Arlington. Cowen Healthcare Conference. Raymond James Institutional InvestorsConference. PSEG Analyst Day. Trades Ex-split: NCS 1-5. Ex-dividend:AEE $0.385, APC $0.09, BAX $0.29, BDX $0.37, CME $1.15, CEG $0.24, NTRS$0.28, OXY $0.33, POM $0.27, RAI $0.90, TRV $0.33. Earnings Before the Open: COMV, DGW, FREE, PARD, YGE . After the Close: CAP,

EMU industrial production (January): Up
Output in the German producing sector (January): unchanged or up EMU industrial production (January): up After having plummeted in December, output in the German producing sector is not expected to have decreased again in January . Industrial output is likely to have gone up, as most of the correlated climate indicators improved. Industrial new orders soared in January, but mainly because of bulk orders, which tend to be carried out with delay. However, construction output has declined due to

March 2010

ISM indices (Feb): Gap between the two indices somewhat narrower
PCE core deflator (Jan): annual rate approaching lower end of Fed?s comfort zone ISM indices (Feb): gap between the two indices somewhat narrower Labour market report (Feb): snowstorms could have interrupted the trend of improving payroll data In 2009, average personal income fell for the first time ever, by 1.4% yoy. However, after 11 consecutive declines, a slight increase of 0.5% yoy was registered in December. We forecast that personal income will have gone up by 0.5% mom and 2.3% yoy in

German industrial new orders (January): Up
German retail sales (January): down German industrial new orders (January): up EMU inflation flash estimate (February): inflation down ECB: set to discuss further steps towards normalising money market conditions After having plummeted in December, German industrial new orders are expected to have recovered in January, as most of the correlated indicators improved. However, German retail sales are likely to have suffered a setback in January, because German consumer confidence and retailers?

Americas Calendar: Week of March 1 - 5,2010
Monday, March 01, 2010 Economic 08:00 Brazil Feb PMI Manufacturing 08:30 Jan Personal Income (last 0.4%), Jan Personal Spending (last 0.2%), Jan PCE Deflator y/y (last 2.1%), Jan PCE Core (last m/m 0.1%, y/y 1.5%), Canada Q4 GDP 10:00 Feb ISM Manufacturing (last 58.4), Feb ISM Prices Paid (last 70), Jan Construction Spending m/m (last -1.2%) Events 08:45 Fed's Lacker to speak to international bankers in Washington. 15:30 Former Fed Chairman Volcker speaks in San Francisco. Bank of America

March 2010 Economic Calendar

Consumer confidence indicators (Feb): Up modestly
Durable goods orders (Jan): lifted by higher transportation orders GDP (Q4 2nd estimate): moderate downward revision due to higher oil imports Consumer confidence went up from 53.6 to 55.9 in January, as the current assessment, though still very low, improved by 5 points. In February, the University of Michigan?s (UMI) preliminary consumer sentiment fell from 74.4 to 73.7 on lower expectations, but, as the graph shows, it remained relatively high compared to the Conference Board?s indicator.

Americas Calendar: Week of February 22 - 26,2010
Monday, February 22, 2010 Economic 10:00 Jan Chicago Fed Activity (last -0.61) 10:30 Feb Dallas Fed Manufacturing (last 8.3%) 13:00 Treasury's $8B 30-yr TIPS auction Events 11:00 Fed's Yellen speaks on US economy. 08:30 FDA Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory CommitteeMeeting. Goldman Sachs Technology Conference. HON investor conference. Ex-dividend: MFC $0.13, MHP $0.235. Earnings Before the Open: COG, CPB , CEG, CEP, ENDP, GEO, LECO, LOW , MDAS, OIS, ORBK, PWR, VCI, VRX. After

EMU economic sentiment (February): Unchanged
German ifo business climate (February): slightly up EMU industrial confidence (February): up EMU economic sentiment (February): unchanged German adjusted unemployment (February): sharp increase due to snow and cold weather M3 growth (January): slightly positive, temporarily German CPI inflation (January): lower The ifo business climate for Germany could have continued to improve in February , albeit only slightly, as the correlated indicators have sent mixed signals: the US ISM manufacturing

Consumer prices (Jan): Annual rate up again
First regional manufacturing indices (Feb): more or less stable Housing starts (Jan): up after weather-related drop in December Industrial production (Jan): rebound in manufacturing Consumer prices (Jan): annual rate up again In January, the New York Empire manufacturing index surged from 4.5 to 15.9. Nevertheless, it only partly rebounded from its December plunge. As we expect the inventory cycle to have continued to have a positive impact on manufacturing, the New York Empire could have

Americas Calendar: Week of February 15 - 19, 2010
Monday, February 15, 2010 Economic 06:30 Chile Jan Copper Exports Events Bond and equity markets closed for President's Day Holiday. Earnings Before the Open: SIHI. After the Close: CCM, DOLE. Tuesday, February 16, 2010 Economic 08:30 Feb Empire Manufacturing (last 15.92) 09:00 Dec Net Long-Term TIC Flows (last $126.8B), Dec Total Net TIC Flows (last $26.6B) 13:00 Feb NAHB Housing Index (last 15) 14:00 Jan Monthly Budget Statement (last -$63.5B) Events 12:00Fed's Hoenig speaks on budget

PMI manufacturing index EMU (February): Slightly up
German ZEW economic sentiment (February): unchanged PMI manufacturing index EMU (February): slightly up The German ZEW economic sentiment could have remained more or less unchanged in February , as the correlated indicators sent mixed signals. The ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index have both improved. The euro has depreciated and crude oil prices have gone down. However, German yield spreads have narrowed, as long-term interest rates have decreased more than

Retail sales (Jan): Up after drop in December
Trade deficit (Dec): slightly wider, but only in nominal terms Retail sales (Jan): up after drop in December UMI consumer sentiment (Feb): down somewhat after soaring in January According to the first GDP estimate for Q4, inventories contributed 3.4 percentage points to the 5.7% increase in GDP in annualised terms. The Department of Commerce nevertheless assumed that wholesale, retail and factory inventories will have decreased in December. Thus wholesale inventories, which had risen by more

Americas Calendar: Week of February 8 - 12, 2010
Monday, February 08, 2010 Economic 06:00 Chile Jan CPI 06:30 Chile Jan Trade Balance 08:30 Canada Jan Housing Starts Events Bankof America India Investor Conference. Deutsche Bank Small and Mid CapConference. Thomas Weisel Technology & Telecom Conference. UBSGlobal Healthcare Services Conference. Biotechnology Industry CEO andInvestor Conference. Ex-dividend: AEP $0.41, CTAS $0.48, IBM, $0.55,XLNX $0.16, XOM $0.42. Earnings Before the Open: AMRI, AGNC, BWP, CGA, CHDX, CNA, CVS , GWR, HAS ,

EMU GDP (Q4): Up
German GDP (Q4) : unchanged  EMU GDP (Q4): up  EMU industrial production (December): up On 12 February, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is publishing its ?flash release? on German Q4 GDP; a detailed breakdown of the components will follow on 24 February. As already suggested by Destatis, German GDP growth will probably have remained unchanged quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2009. Italian GDP could have stagnated in Q4 too, as industrial production decreased in that period.

ISM indices (Jan): higher again
Personal spending (Dec): up despite drop in retail sales ISM indices (Jan): higher again Labour market report (Jan): modest increase in nonfarm payrolls Personal income increased by 0.4% mom in November, but was still 0.3% points lower than the previous year. However, due to various fiscal measures, disposable income was 3% higher than in November 2008. According to the GDP data for Q4, personal income could have gone up again by 0.4% mom in December. The data suggest that personal spending,

February 2010

February 2010 Economic Calendar

Americas Calendar: Week of February 1 - 5, 2010
Monday, February 01, 2010 Economic 07:00 Brazil Jan PMI Manufacturing 08:30 Dec Personal Income (last 0.4%), Dec Personal Spending (last 0.5%), Dec PCE Deflator y/y (last 1.5%), Dec PCE Core (last m/m 0.0%, y/y 1.4%) 10:00 Dec ISM Manufacturing (last 55.9), Dec ISM Prices Paid (last 61.5), Dec Construction Spending m/m (last -0.6%) 15:00 Treasury quarterly funding estimates Events 10:00 Treasury Sec Geithner to testify before Senate Finance Committee. 12:00 Treasury's Barr to speak at

Output in the German producing sector (December): Weak
German retail sales (December): up German industrial new orders (December): weak Output in the German producing sector (December): weak After having soared in November, German industrial new orders and output in the German producing sector are expected to have suffered a setback in December . However, they are unlikely to have decreased, as most of the correlated indicators improved. In December, German retail sales are likely to have recovered from their drop the previous month. However,

GDP (Q4): Inventories driving growth
Consumer confidence indicators (Jan): stable at best  FOMC rate decision: slight changes in the wording of the statement  Durable goods orders (Dec): rebound in aircraft orders  GDP (Q4): inventories driving growth Given that pending home sales plummeted by 16% mom in November, we expect existing home sales, which tend to lag by one or two months, to have dropped significantly in December, from 6.54m to 5.80m. New home sales already plunged in November from 400k to 355k ? their

Americas Calendar: Week of January 25 - 29, 2010
Monday, January 25, 2010 Economic 10:00 Dec Existing Home Sales (last 6.54M, m/m 7.4%) 10:30 Jan Dallas Fed Manufacturing (last 3.8%) Events BoJ Rate Decision . Ex-dividend: PGR $0.161, CALM $0.172. Earnings Before the Open: AKS , BOH, CNH, ETN, HAL , ERIC, PVTB, DGX , SEE. After the Close: ALB, ALGT, AMGN , AAPL , ATHR, CLDN, CR, GGG, HTLF, JEC, JDAS, KRC, MSPD, NARA, OLN, PKG, PRXL, PLXT, RLRN, RLI, SLG, TXN , VMW , VLTR, ZION. Tuesday, January 26, 2010 Economic 05:00 Brazil Jan Consumer

EMU inflation flash estimate (January): Inflation up
German ifo business climate (January): unchanged EMU economic sentiment and industrial confidence (January): unchanged German CPI inflation (January): increasing, but still low EMU inflation flash estimate (January): inflation up German adjusted unemployment (January): cold weather could have had a negative impact M3 growth (December): slightly negative The ifo business climate for Germany will probably have remained unchanged in January . The US ISM manufacturing index has risen, but the

Leading indicators (Dec): Ninth increase in a row
Housing starts (Dec): only up slightly Philadelphia Fed index (Jan): down somewhat after two consecutive improvements Leading indicators (Dec): ninth increase in a row The NAHB index, which had risen from its low of 6 in January 2009 to 18 by September, declined again slightly to 16 in December. This was due to falling expectations for sales of single-family homes. We predict that the NAHB index will have remained unchanged in January. The disappointing performance of the NAHB index suggests

Americas Calendar: Week of January 18 - 22, 2010
Monday, January 18, 2010 Economic None Seen Events Bond and equity markets closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday. Earnings None Seen Tuesday, January 19, 2010 Economic 09:00 BoC Rate Decision , Nov Net Long-Term TIC Flows (last $20.7B), Nov Total Net TIC Flows (last -$13.9B) 13:00 Jan NAHB Housing Market Index (last 16) Events PGNEarnings Guidance. ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales (7:45, last -3%).Redbook Retail Sales (8:55, last +1.4%). ABC Consumer Confidence (last-47). Trades

PMI manufacturing index EMU (January): Up
German ZEW economic sentiment (January): up PMI manufacturing index EMU (January): up The German ZEW economic sentiment is likely to have improved in January , just like the ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index. German yield spreads widened initially, but have now narrowed again slightly, just like long-term interest rates, whereas short-term rates have decreased. After having depreciated initially, the euro has now appreciated somewhat. The DAX has continued going up.

January 2010

Retail sales (Dec): Another increase led by car sales
Trade deficit (Nov): widening due to higher import prices Retail sales (Dec): another increase led by car sales Consumer prices (Dec): moderate rise due to lower gasoline prices NY Empire manufacturing index (Jan): rebound after December plunge Industrial production (Dec): utilities and the inventory cycle have a positive impact UMI consumer sentiment (Jan): stable after marked improvement in December The trade deficit narrowed significantly in October, from $35.7bn to $32.9bn. This was due

ECB council: No change
German GDP 2009 growth: at record low EMU industrial production (November) : more or less unchanged ECB council: no change German GDP growth in 2009 might turn out to have been somewhat less negative than our forecast, as the data of the first three quarters of the year could be revised. However, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is not publishing any quarterly data on 13 January. A ?flash release? on German Q4 GDP will be published on 12 February; a detailed breakdown of the

Americas Calendar: Week of January 11 - 15,2010
Monday, January 11, 2010 Economic 10:00 Mexico final Nov Trade Balance (last 92.9M) 10:30 Q4 Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey (last 6.7) 13:00 Treasury's 10-yr TIPS auction Events 12:45 Fed's Lockhart to speak on the US economic outlook. Cowen Consumer Conference, JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, JefferiesGlobal Healthcare Conference, Sidoti Microcap Conference. TFX 2010outlook. LUNA corporate update. Earnings Before the Open: MDRX , HELE. After the Close: AA , WDFC. Tuesday, January

Labour market report (Dec): deterioration abating
ISM indices (Dec): showing little growth Labour market report (Dec): deterioration abating The ISM manufacturing index declined from 55.7 to 53.6 in November, and we expect it to have fallen further to about 53.0 in December. The first regional manufacturing indices for December showed mixed results: the Chicago PMI jumped to 60.0 and the Philadelphia Fed index rose again, albeit remaining on a relatively low level. However, the New York Empire plummeted from 23.5 to a mere 2.6, and the

Americas Calendar: Week of January 4 - 8,2010
Monday, January 04, 2010 Economic 8:00am Brazil Dec Trade Balance (last $615M) 10:00am Dec ISM Manufacturing (last 53.6), Prices Paid (last 55); Nov Construction Spending (last 0.0%) Events 10:15amET Fed's Lockhart at a financial crisis panel in Atlanta, 1:15pmET Fed's Duke speaks on the economy , Trades Ex-dividend: GPS $0.085, CLI $0.45 Earnings None Seen Tuesday, January 05, 2010 Economic 10:00am Nov Factory Orders (last 0.6%); Nov Pending Home sales (last 3.7% m/m, 28.6% y/y) 4:30pm API

German industrial new orders (November): rebound
EMU inflation flash estimate (December): higher inflation EMU economic sentiment and industrial confidence (December): up German adjusted unemployment (December): cold weather could have had a negative impact German industrial new orders (November): rebound Output in the German producing sector (November): rebound German retail sales (November): slightly up The Eurostat flash estimate is likely to show that euro area inflation increased but is still quite weak. We expect an inflation rate of

Chicago PMI (Dec): Marked downward correction
Consumer confidence (Dec): rebound sparked by improvement in the labour market Chicago PMI (Dec): marked downward correction The Conference Board?s consumer confidence had reached 54.5 in August, but by November, it had fallen back five points. However, given that the University of Michigan?s consumer sentiment rose by six points to 73.4 in the preliminary December survey, we predict that consumer confidence will also have gone up markedly. The Conference Board?s indicator reacts quite

Week of December 28, 2009 - January 1, 2010
Monday, December 28, 2009 Economic 10:30am Dec Dallas Fed Manufacturing (last 0.3%) 1:00pm Treasury's 2 year note auction Events Ex-dividend: KFT $0.29, CPB $0.275. Earnings Before the Open: CALM, NWPX After the Close: BLSW Tuesday, December 29, 2009 Economic 9:00am Oct S&P/CS Home Price Index (last 146.51), Oct S&P/CS Composite-20 (last -9.36%) 10:00am Dec Consumer Confidence (last 49.5) 1:00pm Treasury's 5 year note auction 4:30pm API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories Events