Financial News

Spain: Labour force, employment and unemployment - July 2010

Japan's Batch of Data Shows Higher Unemployment, Weak Production
Overnight, we got end-of-the month statistics from Japan. While there was a positive report in the form of stronger than expected household spending for the month of June, a rise in the unemployment rate and a drop in industrial production dampened any enthusiasm for the Japanese economy. The unemployment rate for June unexpectedly rose to 5.3% from 5.2%. That is a seven-month high for the jobless rate. A second report showed that factory output ? industrial production ? was down 1.5% for the

Canada: GDP advanced 0.1% in May
Canadian economy slowing in Q2 Latest: 0.1% (actual) +0.2% (expected) Previous: 0.0% (no revision) FACTS: Real GDP increased 0.1% in May after remaining essentially unchanged one-month earlier. Activity was up in the goods producing sector (+0.6%), marking a ninth consecutive monthly increase. The mining and oil & gas extraction (+3.4%) and agriculture (+1.3%) industries were the top performers among goods-producing industries while construction (-1.6%) and utilities (-0.5%) lagged.

US: GDP Grows Weaker Than Expected 2.4% in 2nd Quarter
Today?s GDP data is another piece of data that underwhelmed, and adds to the string of releases casting a long shadow over the US recovery. It?s a good snapshot of where the economy is right now as it showed that consumer spending is adding less to growth, while business spending on investment actually picked up. It therefore shows the contrast between companies that may be seeing better revenue and potential profits, but that is not translating to more jobs and confident consumers willing to

US: Employee Compensation Costs Slow in the Second Quarter
Rising in line with expectations, the second quarter Employment Cost Index, a measure of total employee compensation, increased 0.5 percent. The sluggish recovery should keep labor cost pressures under control. Benefits Growth Slows in Q2 The Employment Cost Index (ECI) increased at a slower pace in the second quarter as the benefits component flattened out following an unusually large jump in the first quarter. Wages and salaries grew 0.4 percent for private sector workers, matching the rate

US: Real GDP Grew Modestly During The Second Quarter
Real GDP grew at a 2.4 percent pace in the second quarter. Most of the strength was in the early part of the quarter and the economy is thought to have lost momentum more recently. Less Strength Than Meets The Eye Real GDP grew at a respectable 2.4 percent pace during the second quarter, which was precisely in line with our forecast. Data were revised for the past three years and the new data show the recession was a little deeper than first reported, with real GDP declining 4.1 percent over

US: Beige Book July 2010
The Federal Reserve?s Beige Book reported a modest improvement in economic activity since that last release on June 9. These results are in line with our expectation of GDP growth in 3Q10, but at a slower pace. The labor market is improving, but gradually. Many districts reported increased demand for temporary hires, which indicates that businesses are still hesitant to commit to full-time employees. Hiring was also reported in the manufacturing and healthcare industries, but Dallas reported

US Initial Jobless Claims -11K to 457K in July 24 Week
US initial jobless claims in the week ending July 24 fell 11,000 to 457,000, in line with forecast, from the previous week?s upwardly revised 468,000, according to figures from the Labor Department. The 4-week moving average declined 4,500 to 452,500, the lowest level since May 8. Continuing claims in the week ending July 17 rose 81,000 to 4,565,000 from the preceding week?s downwardly revised 4,484,000. The 4-week moving average of those continuing claims fell 18,000 to 4,548,250. The insured

June US Durable Goods Orders
US durable goods orders unexpectedly fell 1.0% m/m to $190.5 billion in June, a second consecutive monthly fall, after a revised 0.8% m/m decrease in May, data from the Commerce Department showed. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders slid 0.6% m/m to $144.6 billion, the second decline in three months, following May?s upwardly revised 1.2% m/m gain. Durable goods orders rose 15.9% y/y nsa in June; ex-transportation orders rose 15.0% y/y nsa. Shipments of non-defense capital goods

US: No double-dip in sight for corporate investment
This morning?s report on durable goods manufacturers? shipments and orders showed a 1.0% decrease in new orders in June and a 0.7% drop for shipments. Should we be ringing the bell of a double-dip scenario for corporate investment? In fact, these monthly statistics can easily be misleading especially when new aircraft orders plunge by 25.6%. In the second quarter as a whole, shipments of non defense capital goods excluding aircraft are up 16% annualized and new orders in the same category are

Quebec: Trade deficit narrows in May
Trade balance: Latest: ?$1.062 billion Previous: ?$1.367 billion FACTS: The Institut de la statistique du Québec reports that Quebec?s trade deficit narrowed $305 million in May to $1.06 billion (top chart). Exports declined $177 million, or 3.5%, to $4.83 billion. The decrease was equal to the decrease in aerospace exports. Imports declined $482 million, or 7.6%, of which $363 million came from a decline in crude oil imports, after a spike in April, and in heating oil (seasonally adjusted

US: Durable Goods Orders Miss Expectations, Casting a Further Cloud on US Outlook
The June US durable goods report looked quite awful at first glance. Expectations had been for a modest 0.9-1.0% increase for the month, but instead total orders dropped 1%, after falling 0.8% in May. That would suggest that the string of poor economic releases from the US continues and will cast a heavy shadow on the prospects for the outlook for the recovery. Can?t blame the big fall on the transportation sector, as orders excluding transportation were down 0.6% as well. Within the

Canada: House prices up 1.3% in May
Canada: Teranet-National Bank House Price Index m/m growth Latest: +1.3% previous: +0.8% prior: +0.3% y/y growth Latest: +13.6% previous: +12.9% prior: +11.6% FACTS: In May, the Teranet?National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 1.3% from March, a 13th consecutive monthly rise. For the second consecutive month, prices increased in each of the six regions covered. Prices gained 2.3% in Ottawa, 1.8% in Montreal, 1.2% in Vancouver and Calgary, 1.1% in Toronto and 0.7% in Halifax.

US: Durable Goods Orders Pull Back to Finish Second Quarter
New orders for durable goods fell $2.0 B in June, or 1.0 percent. While another down month for commercial aircraft weighed on the headline, weakness in other sectors kept the ex-transportation reading negative. Weakness Evident Beyond Commercial Aircraft Durable goods orders decreased 1.0 percent in June, following May?s 0.8 percent decline. Manufacturing and primary metals slowed for the second month straight, as did the catch-all other category, pointing in part to deceleration in the factory

May S and P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite HPI
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite home price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.5% m/m in May, a second consecutive month-on-month gain, after an upwardly revised 0.6% m/m advance in April, according to S&P/Case-Shiller housing data. The 20-city composite HPI rose a non-seasonally adjusted 1.3% m/m, following April?s upwardly revised 0.9% m/m rise. 20-city home prices rose 4.6% y/y in May, a fourth straight year-on-year gain and the biggest since August 2006, after a 3.8% y/y

July Conference Board US Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board US consumer confidence index fell to a lower-than-expected 50.4 in July from an upwardly revised 54.3 in June, suggesting US consumer sentiment slumped for a second consecutive month to the lowest level since February, a Conference Board report showed, compared with July 2009?s 47.4 level. The present situation index declined to 26.1 in July from an upwardly revised 26.8 in June. The expectations index decreased to 66.6 from June?s upwardly revised 72.7.

July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index declined slightly less than expected to 16 in July from 23 in June, indicating manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region expanded for a sixth successive month but at a slower pace, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond?s latest survey. The new orders index fell to 13 from June?s 25, suggesting new orders grew for a seventh straight month but at a slower rate. However, the employment index rose to 15 in July from 9 in June, suggesting

US: What should we read in the confidence numbers?
consumer confidence fell in July. Far from being a leading indicator, the present situation of the index is just a mirror image of the unemployment rate. This means that we must look elsewhere for clues with respect to upcoming households spending. Would focusing on the expectations component be more instructive? Well, this is not crystal clear. As today?s Hot Charts shows, confidence expectations is not always closely linked with consumer spending. In the recovery of the 2000?s, confidence was

US: Consumer Confidence Falls, in Line With Expectations
The Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.9 points in July to 50.4. Both the current conditions and expectations series declined during the month and the labor market components of the survey weakened. Consumer Confidence Weakens In July With July?s 3.9 point drop, the Consumer Confidence Index is now down 12.3 points from its May high. Most of that drop has been in the expectations series, which has fallen 18 points. The drop in Consumer Confidence appears at odds with the recent strong earnings

US: Housing Prices Surprise on Upside
The S&P/Case-Shiller house price index showed housing prices climbing in May, but there are concerns that seasonal factors and the residual influence of the government?s home buyers tax credit are boosting the numbers prior to a fall off in the second half of the year. Demand for homes has fallen sharply recently, and with inventories remain at elevated levels. That will put pressure on housing prices going forward. Still, it was the second monthly increase in prices as the 10-city index

June Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed national activity index fell to -0.63 in June from an upwardly revised 0.31 in May, led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, suggesting the national economy posted below-average growth for the first time in four months, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, compared with June 2009?s -1.72. The index? 3-month moving average slid to -0.05 in June, the first decline in three months, from an upwardly revised 0.31 a month

June US New Home Sales
US new home sales rose a more-than-anticipated 23.6% m/m to a seasonally adjusted 330,000 annual rate in June, the second-lowest level since 1963, after a downwardly revised 36.7% m/m drop that was the biggest on record to a 267,000 annual pace in May, figures released jointly by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development showed. June new home sales fell 16.7% y/y. Sales increased in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, but decreased in the West. The median price of

Global IP finally back to its pre-recession level
Global trade flows continue to surge. According to the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the volume of world trade grew 1.8% in May, the eighth increase in nine months. World trade volume is now only 3% below its peak level reached early in 2008. As Today?s Hot Charts shows, trade flows are currently expanding at a 23% annual clip on a year over year basis. On the flip side, this surge in trade flows pushed global industrial production virtually back to its pre-recession level. Despite

US: New Home Sales Bounce Off Their Revised May Low
New home sales rose 23.6 percent in June but the increase came with substantial net revisions to the previously published data. Total June sales net of revisions would have been just 268,000. Expiring Tax Credits Continue to Muddle the Housing Market New home sales bounced back 23.6 percent in June, following a 36.7 percent plunge in May. The absolute level of new home sales remains exceptionally low at just 330,000 units. May?s new home sales were revised down from a previously published

Quebec: Real GDP up 0.1% in April
OPINION: The slightness of real GDP growth in April is not in itself cause for concern. The retreat in manufactur­ing production, for example, was far from broad-based ? output increased in 11 of the 21 major industry groups. Though production was flat in services as a whole, it was up in eight of 13 sectors. Real GDP for the first month of the second quarter was up 1.0% annualized over Q1, with goods production contributing as much as services. Residential construction is unlikely to be a

Euro-Zone Stress Tests Released, 7 Banks Fail But Criteria Questioned
Coming into this week the talk in currency markets was the Euro-zone bank stress tests and their results. A result in which all banks passed would be seen as too lenient and would not go far enough to restores confidence in the Euro-zone financial system. However, if too many banks failed the criteria it could spook investors as they see the Euro-zone banking sector still mired in the sovereign debt crisis. Well, after much speculation we finally have the results. As expected the German bank

Stress tests in Europe and the Federal Reserve on a slower path
The widening gap between US and EMU events became even clearer this week. In Europe, macro data came surprisingly high in July?s PMI, but the main concern was obviously on the stress tests and their implications. The combination of ?less bad? macro data and a powerful stress test is precisely what saved the US back in 2009. This time around, however, on the other side of the Atlantic the focus remains on the much feared double dip. Bernanke?s remarks on his Congress appearance corroborated

PREVIEW: EU banking stress tests
The Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) will publish an aggregated set of results at 1700 BST, followed by further details given bank by bank at 17:30 BST. Banks and the National regulators are also set to publish breakdowns of these results over the course of the following hour. The wait is over? After much speculation of an early release, an EU official confirmed earlier in the week that the EU bank stress tests results will be released after the European markets close today.

Canada: CPI Core inflation declines slightly in June
Total CPI : Latest (y/y) : +1.0 (actual) +1.0% (forecast) previous :+1.4% CPIX : Latest (y/y): +1.7% (actual) +1.9% (forecast) Previous :+1.8% FACTS: Headline CPI inflation declined to 1.0% in June from 1.4% in May. The core CPI decelerated to 1.7% yearover- year from 1.8% reported last month. On a monthly basis, headline CPI fell 0.2% (seasonally adjusted), the same rate of decrease observed in May. Core inflation is up 0.1% on the month, the same rate of increase as in May. The recreation,

June Conference Board US LEI
The Conference Board US leading economic indicators index, a measure of future economic activity, was down 0.2% m/m to 109.8 in June, the second decline in three months, after an upwardly revised 0.5% m/m advance in May and a downwardly revised 0.1% m/m decline in April, according to LEI data from the Conference Board, pointing to slowing economic growth in H2 2010. The coincident index, measuring current economic activity, was unchanged at 101.4 in June, following an upwardly revised 0.5% m/m

US Initial Jobless Claims +37K to 464K in July 17 Week
US initial jobless claims in the week ending July 17 climbed 37,000 to a higher-than-anticipated 464,000 from the previous week?s downwardly revised 427,000, figures from the Labor Department showed. The 4-week moving average increased 1,250 to 456,000. However, continuing claims in the week ending July 10 dropped 223,000 to 4,487,000 from the preceding week?s upwardly revised 4,710,000. The 4-week moving average of those continuing claims fell 21,500 to 4,567,000. The insured unemployment

May FHFA US House Prices
FHFA US house prices unexpectedly grew 0.5% m/m sa in May, a third consecutive monthly gain, after an upwardly revised 0.9% m/m advance in April, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency?s monthly house price index. May house prices fell 1.2% y/y, a sixth straight year-on-year fall.

June US Existing-Home Sales
US existing-home sales fell for a second month in June, falling a less-than-expected 5.1% m/m to a seasonally adjusted 5.37 million annual rate, after a 2.2% m/m May decline to a 5.66 million annual pace, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed. June existing home sales rose 9.8% y/y. The June month-on-month fall was led by sales drops in the Midwest, South and West. Sales increased in the Northeast. Sales decreased for both single-family home sales and condos/coops. The

Euro Rallies on Manufacturing and Services Data
Euro Rallies on Manufacturing & Services Data, Higher Yielders Up on Risk Appetite  The Euro broke a spell of weakness against the Dollar as it found support from better than expected manufacturing and services data in the form of the flash version of purchasing mangers indexes.  The Euro-zone manufacturing PMI rose to 56.5 from 55.6 while the services PMI edged higher to 56.0 from 55.5. The gains were led by a sharp rise in Germany?s economy. It?s manufacturing PMI rose to 61.2

Canada: Retail sales were down 0.2% in May
Retail sales Latest number: -0.2% (actual) +0.4% (expected) Excluding motor vehicles & parts Latest number: -0.1% (actual) +0.5% (expected) FACTS: Retail sales decreased 0.2% in May, a second consecutive monthly decline. Sales decreased in 6 of 11 retail industries with over 48% of the decrease coming from motor vehicles & parts (-0.5%). Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales decreased 0.1%, with the largest pullback registered by building material, garden equipment and

US: Existing Home Sales Slip in June
Existing home sales fell 5.1 percent in June but sales held up better than many expected. Sales of single family homes fell 5.6 percent, while sales of condominiums and townhomes declined 1.5 percent. Tax Credits Continue to Buoy Home Sales Sales of existing homes fell 5.1 percent in June to a still relatively robust 5.37 million-unit pace. Sales continue to be supported by tax credits. Delays in the closing process have led to an extension of the closing deadline which will likely smooth the

US: Leading Index Gives Up Ground in June
After advancing every month for more than a year the leading economic index (LEI) shed 0.2 percent in June. This is the latest affirmation of our view that economic growth will likely slow in the second half of 2010. Ugly Job Market Weighs on Economic Outlook The LEI is consistent with our view for slower growth but no double dip. The health of the job market is represented in the LEI by two components. One is average weekly hours, which pulled down the index more than any other component in

EMU: July PMIs dispel fears of a double dip
EMU ? Mfg PMI (Jul P): 56.5 UniCredit: 54.9 ------ Consensus: 55.1 ----- Last: 55.6 EMU ? Services PMI (Jul P): 56 UniCredit: 55 ------ Consensus: 55 ----- Last: 55.5 The July PMIs came in better than expected with both the manufacturing and services indexes picking up to 56.5 (from 55.6) and 56 (from 55.5) respectively. Germany recorded a solid improvement of both the manufacturing and the services PMI, which rose respectively to 61.2 (from 58.4) and to 57.3 from 54.8. In France, the services

MBA US Mortgage Applications in July 16 Week
The MBA US market composite index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased a seasonally adjusted 7.6% for the week ending July 16 after a 2.9% decline a week earlier, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported. The refinance index rose 8.6% w/w, the highest since the week ending May 15, 2009. The purchase index was up 3.4% w/w, led by an 8.0% w/w rise in government purchase applications.

May Westpac-Melbourne Institute Australian LEI
Australia?s economic growth remains high; however, showing a modest slowdown. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Australian leading economic indicators index, a measure of future economic activity, increased 0.2% m/m to 264.7 in May, Westpac Banking Corp. and the Melbourne Institute reported. The LEI annualized growth rate slowed for a second month, to 6.7%, the weakest pace since November 2009, from April?s 7.5%. The coincident index, measuring current economic activity, increased to 252.4 in

August 2010 Economic Calendar

Consumer confidence (Jul): Moderately lower
New home sales (Jun): slight rebound from depressed levels  Consumer confidence (Jul): moderately lower  Durable goods orders (Jun): noticeable increase mainly due to nondefense aircraft orders  GDP (Q2): up by about 2.5% qoq in annualised terms After the expiry of the home buyer tax credit on 30 April, new home sales in May plunged by a third to a record low of only 300,000 units. Sales are likely to have remained depressed in June. In view of the sales level, however, we

German CPI inflation (July): Up
M3 money supply growth (June): annual rate still slightly negative German CPI inflation (July): up EMU inflation flash estimate (July): higher EMU industrial confidence (July): up EMU economic sentiment (July): up German adjusted unemployment (July): moderate decline German retail sales (June): modest drop EMU industrial confidence and economic sentiment will probably have improved sharply in July , just like the majority of the corresponding national figures. EMU consumer confidence is not

Existing home sales (Jun): set to plunge
Housing starts (Jun): stable after significant decline Existing home sales (Jun): set to plunge Leading indicators (Jun): signalling a slowdown In June, the NAHB index fell significantly by 5 points to 17, reflecting a drop in building activities after the expiration of tax incentives. Building activities will probably have remained subdued in July. We expect the NAHB index to have retreated somewhat further to about 15 in July ? far below the threshold of 50, above which more builders view

German ifo business climate (July): Unchanged
German ifo business climate (July): unchanged PMI manufacturing index EMU (July): unchanged The ifo business climate for Germany could have remained unchanged at least in July. The German ZEW economic sentiment and the US ISM manufacturing index have both declined. German yield spreads have also gone down, as short-term interest rates have increased and long-term rates have been fluctuating. The DAX and crude oil prices have been fluctuating too and the euro has appreciated somewhat recently.

Retail sales (Jun): No rebound
Trade balance (May): deficit somewhat narrower  Retail sales (Jun) : no rebound  Inflation data (Jun) : annual rates set to drop sharply  FOMC minutes : will include adjusted projections First regional PMIs (Jul): moderate expansion  Industrial production (Jun) : decline after surge in May  UMI consumer sentiment index (Jul) : lower despite decrease in gasoline prices In April, exports fell somewhat more than imports, and thus the trade deficit widened from $40.0bn to

July 2010

EMU industrial production (May): Up
German ZEW economic sentiment (July): down  EMU industrial production (May): up The German ZEW economic sentiment could have continued to decline in July. The ifo business expectations, the US ISM manufacturing index and German yield spreads have all gone down, as long-term interest rates have decreased and short-term rates increased. The DAX and crude oil prices have been fluctuating and the euro has appreciated somewhat recently. EMU industrial production will probably have increased in

ISM non-manufacturing index (Jun): Unchanged at best
Wholesale inventories (May): moderate build-up continues The ISM non-manufacturing index was unchanged at 55.4 for the third consecutive month in May and thus remained far behind its manufacturing counterpart, which has benefited more from restocking of inventories. The gap between the two indices is narrowing because the upswing has broadened somewhat, but also because of the moderation in the ISM manufacturing index. The latter fell to 56.2 in June which is still a solid level, albeit the

ECB: No policy action
German industrial new orders (May): unchanged at least Output in the German producing sector (May) : up ECB: no policy action German industrial new orders might have remained unchanged at least in May , as the correlated indicators sent mixed, but on the whole rather positive signals. However, output in the German producing sector could have continued to increase in May , just like most of the correlated indicators. The same applies to Italian industrial production. French industrial

Consumer confidence (Jun): Only a modest improvement
PCE core deflator (May): approaching lower boundary of the Fed?s comfort zone Consumer confidence (Jun): only a modest improvement ISM manufacturing index (Jun): decline, but still at an elevated level Labour market report (Jun): drop due to significant reduction in Census jobs Personal income could again have gone up by 0.4% mom in June, as both aggregate weekly hours and average hourly earnings rose. But personal spending might have remained stable at best, as retail sales unexpectedly fell

German retail sales (May): Modest drop
M3 money supply growth (April): turning upwards German CPI inflation (June): down markedly EMU inflation flash estimate (June): lower EMU industrial confidence (June): down somewhat EMU economic sentiment (June): slight deterioration German adjusted unemployment (June): another significant decline German retail sales (May): modest drop Although market interest rates still provide little incentive to put funds into time deposits or other short term instruments, euro area M3 has started to rise

FOMC-meeting: Statement still likely to contain "extended period" phrase
Home sales (May): existing home sales up, but new home sales down  FOMC-meeting: statement still likely to contain ?extended period? phrase  Durable goods orders (May): noticeable decline due to nondefense aircraft Existing home sales rose by about 15% in the last two months, due to the approaching expiration date of the homebuyer tax credit. Given that pending home sales (which lead actual sales by a month or two) increased by a further 6% mom in April, we forecast that existing

German ifo business climate (June): Slightly up
PMI manufacturing index EMU (June): down somewhat The ifo business climate for Germany could have gone up in June , as current assessment is likely to have improved more than business expectations deteriorated (see the chart on page 2). The German ZEW economic sentiment and the US ISM manufacturing index have declined. German yield spreads have gone down, as long-term interest rates have decreased and short-term rates have risen. However, the euro and crude oil prices have fallen too, and the

Industrial production (May): Sharp increase
Inflation data (May): declines due to plunge in energy prices  First regional PMIs (June): still at elevated levels  Housing starts (May): stable after significant rise  Industrial production (May): sharp increase Headline inflation rates are likely to have fallen in May, due to the sharp downward correction in oil prices. Import prices could have declined by as much as 1.5% mom in May. Due to an additional base effect, the annual rate could have gone down markedly from 11.1% to

EMU industrial production (April): Up
German ZEW economic sentiment (June): down EMU industrial production (April): up The German ZEW economic sentiment could have continued to decrease in June . The ifo business expectations, the US ISM manufacturing index, the DAX and German yield spreads have all gone down, with long-term interest rates having decreased and short-term rates having increased. However, the euro and crude oil prices have also declined. EMU industrial production will probably have increased in March , as the

June 2010

UMI consumer sentiment (June): Slight improvement
Trade balance (April): widening deficit due to domestic demand and oil imports Retail sales (May): increase due to higher car sales and gasoline prices UMI consumer sentiment (June): slight improvement Consumer credit increased by $2bn in March, as a result of an incentive-driven surge in car sales. Thus we expect consumer credit to have fallen back somewhat in April, albeit only slightly by $1bn, as consumer confidence is improving. We expect wholesale inventories to have gone up by 0.5% mom.

ECB: No policy action
German industrial new orders (April): up Output in the German producing sector (April): up  ECB: no policy action German industrial new orders and output in the German producing sector are likely to have increased in April , just like the correlated indicators. Italian industrial production might also have risen in April , as most of the correlated indicators improved. French industrial production could have remained more or less unchanged in April , as the correlated indicators sent

Factory orders (Apr): Eighth consecutive increase
ISM indices (May): gap between the two indices is narrowing Factory orders (Apr): eighth consecutive increase Labour market report (May): nonfarm payrolls boosted by Census The ISM manufacturing index rose further in April, from 59.6 to 60.4. This was the highest level since July 2004. In May, the first two regional manufacturing indices from New York and Philadelphia showed mixed results. However, both would point to a significantly slower expansion in May, if their subcomponents were

German retail sales (April): Set to rebound
EMU industrial confidence (May): up slightly EMU economic sentiment (May): slight improvement German retail sales (April): set to rebound M3 money supply growth (April): still negative EMU inflation flash estimate (May): up slightly German adjusted unemployment (May): another marked decline EMU industrial confidence and economic sentiment will probably have improved somewhat in May , just like the majority of the corresponding national figures. EMU consumer confidence and the Purchasing

June 2010 Economic Calendar

GDP (Q1 2nd estimate): Slight upward revision
Existing home sales (Apr): another noticeable increase due to the tax credit Consumer confidence (May): significant rise as labour market conditions are improving Durable goods orders (Apr): stable after surge in orders ex transportation GDP (Q1 2nd estimate): slight upward revision PCE core deflator (Apr): at the lower end of the Fed?s comfort zone Existing home sales increased by almost 7% mom to 5.35m in March, due to the approaching expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, which had been

German CPI inflation (May): Up
The preliminary results for national German CPI in May will be released on Thursday. We expect German consumer prices to have increased by 0.4% month-on-month, which would lift the annual rate to 1.6%. Due to seasonal effects, prices for accommodation services and package tours will probably have been higher than in April. On the other hand, clothing could have become cheaper. Furthermore, the inflation effect from gasoline and heating oil prices are likely to have been more or less neutral.

Consumer prices (Apr): Disinflation at the core level
First regional PMIs (May): indicating ongoing strength in manufacturing  Housing starts (Apr): moderate upward trend continues  Consumer prices (Apr): disinflation at the core level  Leading indicators (Apr): modest rise following massive increase The New York Empire manufacturing index jumped nine points in April, and the six-month outlook also improved further. Thus the 3-month moving average for expectations has reached a seven-year high. We expect the New York Empire to

PMI manufacturing index EMU (May): Up
German ifo business climate (May): further improvement German ZEW economic sentiment (May): modest rise PMI manufacturing index EMU (May): up The German ZEW economic sentiment and the ifo business climate for Germany could have improved once more in May, albeit not as sharply as in April. The ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index have both gone up. And the comprehensive rescue package for eurozone countries with crucial budgetary problems has probably brought further

Retail sales (Apr): Lower car sales dampen increase
Trade balance (Mar): wider deficit due to higher oil imports and domestic demand Retail sales (Apr): lower car sales dampen increase Industrial production (Apr): upward trend continues UMI consumer sentiment (May): return to the January level For the first time in more than two years, business inventories rose markedly in the 1st quarter and contributed strongly to GDP growth again (1.6 percentage points, after 3.8 in Q4). The Department of Commerce assumed that wholesale and retail

EMU industrial production (March): Up
German and EMU GDP (Q1): unchanged at best  EMU industrial production (March): up French and Italian GDP could have increased in Q1, but German and overall EMU GDP are likely to have stagnated at best. On 12 May, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is publishing its ?flash release? on German Q1 GDP; a detailed breakdown of the components will follow on 21 May. Changes in inventories could have rebounded. Government and private consumption and investment in machinery and

May 2010

PCE core deflator (Mar): Slight increase
I SM indices (Apr): at robust expansion levels Labour market report (Apr): temporary Census hiring and solid growth in private jobs March data for personal income and spending were incorporated in the first GDP estimate for Q1. Judging by these data, personal income growth might have recovered to 0.6% mom in March. Growth in personal spending could have accelerated to about 0.8% mom, in line with the sharp increase in retail sales of 1.6%, which was largely due to higher vehicle sales.

ECB: No policy action
German retail sales (March): up German industrial new orders (March): up Output in the German producing sector (March): up ECB : no policy action German industrial new orders are likely to have soared in March , just like the correlated climate indicators. The same applies to output in the German producing sector in March, especially as construction output will probably have recovered from the harsh winter. German retail sales could have increased too in March , because both German retailers?

May 2010 Economic Calendar

FOMC: Focus on wording of statement
Consumer confidence (Apr): another slight improvement FOMC: focus on wording of statement GDP (Q1): personal consumption as main growth driver Consumer confidence rose from 46.4 to 52.5 in March, as both the current assessment and particularly expectations improved due to more optimism on employment and income prospects. We already know that the University of Michigan?s (UMI) preliminary April consumer sentiment fell noticeably from 73.6 to 69.5, as expectations plunged to lower than a year

EMU industrial confidence (April): Up
German CPI inflation (April): slightly higher German adjusted unemployment (March): somewhat lower M3 money supply growth (March): still negative EMU industrial confidence (April): up EMU economic sentiment (April): up EMU inflation flash estimate (April): up slightly EMU industrial confidence and economic sentiment will probably have improved in April. EMU consumer confidence is not expected to be revised significantly. The German GfK consumer confidence for May could have remained fairly

Durable goods orders (Mar): Upward trend continues
Leading indicators (Mar): significant rise Home sales (Mar): sharp improvement due to tax credit Durable goods orders (Mar): upward trend continues Leading indicators rose by a mere 0.1% mom in February, but in March they could have jumped by 1.2% mom. This would be the 12th consecutive increase, and it will have been led by the steep yield curve, longer manufacturing working hours, slower deliveries, higher stock prices, a sharp rise in building permits and lower jobless claims. The only

PMI manufacturing index EMU (April): Modest rise
German ZEW economic sentiment (April): up slightly PMI manufacturing index EMU (April): modest rise German ifo business climate (April): further improvement The German ZEW economic sentiment could have improved somewhat in April , and the ifo business climate for Germany could also have risen again, albeit not as sharply as in the previous month. The ifo business expectations, the US ISM manufacturing index and the DAX have all gone up. The euro and German yield spreads have been fluctuating,

April 2010

Consumer prices (Mar): Up moderately
Trade balance (Feb): deficit slightly wider Consumer prices (Mar): up moderately Retail sales (Mar): marked increase due to rebound in car sales First regional PMIs (Apr): rising mainly because of inventory build-up Industrial production (Mar): higher manufacturing output Housing starts (Mar): bouncing back after the snowstorms UMI consumer sentiment (Apr): slight improvement The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the deficit in March at $62.0bn ? $129bn less than in March 2009. The

EMU industrial production (February): More or less stable
After having soared in January, Italian industrial production might have at least stabilised in February, because most of the correlated indicators improved. EMU industrial production will probably have remained virtually unchanged in February too, because EMU industrial confidence only improved slightly, and EMU economic sentiment actually deteriorated somewhat. Following its usual seasonal pattern, the EMU trade balance is likely to have gone up in February, just like the corresponding

Pending home sales (Feb): Up after sharp decline
ISM non-manufacturing index (Mar): further rise due to better employment conditions Pending home sales (Feb): up after sharp decline Wholesale inventories (Feb): resume of the inventory buildup As the graph shows, the ISM non-manufacturing index has been lagging behind its manufacturing counterpart since July 2009. However, due to significant improvement in the employment, deliveries and business activity components, the ISM non-manufacturing index improved by 3 points to 53.5 in February.